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Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Heidi Webber

    (Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)
    University of Bonn)

  • Frank Ewert

    (Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)
    University of Bonn)

  • Jørgen E. Olesen

    (Aarhus University)

  • Christoph Müller

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Stefan Fronzek

    (Finnish Environment Institute)

  • Alex C. Ruane

    (National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Maryse Bourgault

    (Montana State University)

  • Pierre Martre

    (Montpellier SupAgro)

  • Behnam Ababaei

    (Montpellier SupAgro
    Limagrain Europe
    University of Queensland)

  • Marco Bindi

    (University of Florence)

  • Roberto Ferrise

    (University of Florence)

  • Robert Finger

    (Agricultural Economics and Policy Group)

  • Nándor Fodor

    (Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Clara Gabaldón-Leal

    (IFAPA-Centro Alameda del Obispo)

  • Thomas Gaiser

    (University of Bonn)

  • Mohamed Jabloun

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Kurt-Christian Kersebaum

    (Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF))

  • Jon I. Lizaso

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

  • Ignacio J. Lorite

    (IFAPA-Centro Alameda del Obispo)

  • Loic Manceau

    (Montpellier SupAgro)

  • Marco Moriondo

    (CNR-IBIMET)

  • Claas Nendel

    (Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF))

  • Alfredo Rodríguez

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
    Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

  • Margarita Ruiz-Ramos

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

  • Mikhail A. Semenov

    (Rothamsted Research)

  • Stefan Siebert

    (University of Göttingen)

  • Tommaso Stella

    (Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF))

  • Pierre Stratonovitch

    (Rothamsted Research)

  • Giacomo Trombi

    (University of Queensland)

  • Daniel Wallach

    (INRA)

Abstract

Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.

Suggested Citation

  • Heidi Webber & Frank Ewert & Jørgen E. Olesen & Christoph Müller & Stefan Fronzek & Alex C. Ruane & Maryse Bourgault & Pierre Martre & Behnam Ababaei & Marco Bindi & Roberto Ferrise & Robert Finger & , 2018. "Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-06525-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Funso Agunbiade & Olubukola Oluranti Babalola, 2023. "Endophytic and rhizobacteria functionalities in alleviating drought stress in maize plants," Plant Protection Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(1), pages 1-18.
    2. Palosuo, Taru & Hoffmann, Munir P. & Rötter, Reimund P. & Lehtonen, Heikki S., 2021. "Sustainable intensification of crop production under alternative future changes in climate and technology: The case of the North Savo region," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Bucheli, Janic & Dalhaus, Tobias & Finger, Robert, 2022. "Temperature effects on crop yields in heat index insurance," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Jing, Lanshu & Weng, Baisha & Yan, Denghua & Yuan, Fei & Zhang, Shanjun & Bi, Wuxia & Yan, Siying, 2023. "Assessment of resilience in maize suitable planting areas under drought stress," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    5. Rodríguez, Alfredo & Pérez-López, David & Centeno, Ana & Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, 2021. "Viability of temperate fruit tree varieties in Spain under climate change according to chilling accumulation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    6. Ölkers, Tim & Liu, Shuang & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2023. "A typology of Malian farmers and their credit repayment performance - An unsupervised machine learning approach," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334547, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    7. Ramírez-Cuesta, J.M. & Intrigliolo, D.S. & Lorite, I.J. & Moreno, M.A. & Vanella, D. & Ballesteros, R. & Hernández-López, D. & Buesa, I., 2023. "Determining grapevine water use under different sustainable agronomic practices using METRIC-UAV surface energy balance model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    8. Donmez, Cenk & Schmidt, Marcus & Cilek, Ahmet & Grosse, Meike & Paul, Carsten & Hierold, Wilfried & Helming, Katharina, 2023. "Climate change impacts on long-term field experiments in Germany," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Beatrice Monteleone & Iolanda Borzí & Brunella Bonaccorso & Mario Martina, 2023. "Quantifying crop vulnerability to weather-related extreme events and climate change through vulnerability curves," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 2761-2796, April.
    10. Cabezas, J.M. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Soriano, M.A. & Santos, C. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Lorite, I.J., 2021. "Impact of climate change on economic components of Mediterranean olive orchards," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    11. Robert Finger, 2023. "Digital innovations for sustainable and resilient agricultural systems," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(4), pages 1277-1309.
    12. Markhof,Yannick Valentin & Ponzini,Giulia & Wollburg,Philip Randolph, 2022. "Measuring Disaster Crop Production Losses Using Survey Microdata : Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9968, The World Bank.
    13. García-López, J. & García-Ruiz, R. & Domínguez, J. & Lorite, I.J., 2019. "Improving the sustainability of farming systems under semi-arid conditions by enhancing crop management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Holzkämper, Annelie, 2020. "Varietal adaptations matter for agricultural water use – a simulation study on grain maize in Western Switzerland," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    15. Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo & Sorvali, Jaana & Kaseva, Janne, 2021. "Finnish farmers’ views towards fluctuating and changing precipitation patterns pave the way for the future," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    16. Schmitt, Jonas & Offermann, Frank & Söder, Mareike & Frühauf, Cathleen & Finger, Robert, 2022. "Extreme weather events cause significant crop yield losses at the farm level in German agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

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