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Temperature-related mortality in China from specific injury

Author

Listed:
  • Jianxiong Hu

    (Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Guanhao He

    (Jinan University)

  • Ruilin Meng

    (Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Weiwei Gong

    (Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Zhoupeng Ren

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Heng Shi

    (Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Ziqiang Lin

    (Jinan University)

  • Tao Liu

    (Jinan University)

  • Fangfang Zeng

    (Jinan University)

  • Peng Yin

    (The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Guoxia Bai

    (Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Mingfang Qin

    (Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Zhulin Hou

    (Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Xiaomei Dong

    (Jinan University)

  • Chunliang Zhou

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Zhuoma Pingcuo

    (Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Yize Xiao

    (Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Min Yu

    (Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Biao Huang

    (Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Xiaojun Xu

    (Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Lifeng Lin

    (Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Jianpeng Xiao

    (Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Jieming Zhong

    (Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Donghui Jin

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Qinglong Zhao

    (Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Yajie Li

    (Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Cangjue Gama

    (Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Yiqing Xu

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Lingshuang Lv

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Weilin Zeng

    (Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Xing Li

    (Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Liying Luo

    (Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Maigeng Zhou

    (The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Cunrui Huang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Wenjun Ma

    (Jinan University)

Abstract

Injury poses heavy burden on public health, accounting for nearly 8% of all deaths globally, but little evidence on the role of climate change on injury exists. We collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to examine the effects of temperature on injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature change driven by climate change based on the assumption of constant injury mortality and population scenario. The results show that a 0.50% (95% confident interval (CI): 0.13%–0.88%) increase of injury mortality risk for each 1 °C rise in daily temperature, with higher risk for intentional injury (1.13%, 0.55%–1.71%) than that for unintentional injury (0.40%, 0.04%–0.77%). Compared to the 2010s, total injury deaths attributable to temperature change in China would increase 156,586 (37,654–272,316) in the 2090 s under representative concentration pathways 8.5 scenario with the highest for transport injury (64,764, 8,517–115,743). Populations living in Western China, people aged 15–69 years, and male may suffer more injury mortality burden from increased temperature caused by climate change. Our findings may be informative for public health policy development to effectively adapt to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianxiong Hu & Guanhao He & Ruilin Meng & Weiwei Gong & Zhoupeng Ren & Heng Shi & Ziqiang Lin & Tao Liu & Fangfang Zeng & Peng Yin & Guoxia Bai & Mingfang Qin & Zhulin Hou & Xiaomei Dong & Chunliang Z, 2023. "Temperature-related mortality in China from specific injury," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-35462-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35462-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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