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Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts

Author

Listed:
  • Xilin Wu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Academy of Sciences)

  • Jun Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yong Ge

    (Jiangxi Normal University)

  • Shengjie Lai

    (University of Southampton
    University of Southampton)

  • Die Zhang

    (Jiangxi Normal University
    Jiangxi Normal University)

  • Zhoupeng Ren

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Jianghao Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is driving summer heat toward more humid conditions, accompanied by more frequent day-night compound heat extremes (high temperatures during both day and night). As the fast-warming and aging continent, Europe faces escalating heat-related health risks. Here, we projected future heat-related mortality in Europe using a distributed lag nonlinear model that incorporates humid heat and compound heat extremes, strengthened by a health risk-based definition of extreme heat and a scenario matrix integrating time-varying adaptation trajectories. Under 2010–2019 adaptation baselines, future heat-related mortality is projected to increase annually by 103.7-135.1 deaths per million people by 2100 across various population-climate scenarios for every degree of global warming, with Western and Eastern Europe suffering the most. If global warming exceeds 2 °C, climate change will dominate (84.0–96.8%) projected increase in heat-related mortality. Across all socioeconomic pathways, even a 50% reduction in heat-related relative risk through physiological adaptation will be insufficient to offset the climate change-driven escalation of future heat-related mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Xilin Wu & Jun Wang & Yong Ge & Shengjie Lai & Die Zhang & Zhoupeng Ren & Jianghao Wang, 2025. "Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-62871-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62871-y
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