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Blue food demand across geographic and temporal scales

Author

Listed:
  • Rosamond L. Naylor

    (Stanford University)

  • Avinash Kishore

    (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI))

  • U. Rashid Sumaila

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Ibrahim Issifu

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Blaire P. Hunter

    (Stanford University)

  • Ben Belton

    (WorldFish
    Michigan State University)

  • Simon R. Bush

    (Wageningen University)

  • Ling Cao

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Stefan Gelcich

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

  • Jessica A. Gephart

    (American University)

  • Christopher D. Golden

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Malin Jonell

    (The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
    Stockholm University
    Royal Swedish Academy of Science)

  • J. Zachary Koehn

    (Stanford University)

  • David C. Little

    (University of Stirling)

  • Shakuntala H. Thilsted

    (WorldFish)

  • Michelle Tigchelaar

    (Stanford University)

  • Beatrice Crona

    (Stockholm University
    Royal Swedish Academy of Science)

Abstract

Numerous studies have focused on the need to expand production of ‘blue foods’, defined as aquatic foods captured or cultivated in marine and freshwater systems, to meet rising population- and income-driven demand. Here we analyze the roles of economic, demographic, and geographic factors and preferences in shaping blue food demand, using secondary data from FAO and The World Bank, parameters from published models, and case studies at national to sub-national scales. Our results show a weak cross-sectional relationship between per capita income and consumption globally when using an aggregate fish metric. Disaggregation by fish species group reveals distinct geographic patterns; for example, high consumption of freshwater fish in China and pelagic fish in Ghana and Peru where these fish are widely available, affordable, and traditionally eaten. We project a near doubling of global fish demand by mid-century assuming continued growth in aquaculture production and constant real prices for fish. Our study concludes that nutritional and environmental consequences of rising demand will depend on substitution among fish groups and other animal source foods in national diets.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosamond L. Naylor & Avinash Kishore & U. Rashid Sumaila & Ibrahim Issifu & Blaire P. Hunter & Ben Belton & Simon R. Bush & Ling Cao & Stefan Gelcich & Jessica A. Gephart & Christopher D. Golden & Mal, 2021. "Blue food demand across geographic and temporal scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25516-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25516-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ling Cao & Benjamin S. Halpern & Max Troell & Rebecca Short & Cong Zeng & Ziyu Jiang & Yue Liu & Chengxuan Zou & Chunyu Liu & Shurong Liu & Xiangwei Liu & William W. L. Cheung & Richard S. Cottrell & , 2023. "Vulnerability of blue foods to human-induced environmental change," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1186-1198, October.
    2. Feng, Jing-Chun & Sun, Liwei & Yan, Jinyue, 2023. "Carbon sequestration via shellfish farming: A potential negative emissions technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Kangshun Zhao & Steven D. Gaines & Jorge García Molinos & Min Zhang & Jun Xu, 2024. "Effect of trade on global aquatic food consumption patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Jessica M. Scott & Ben Belton & Kristi Mahrt & Shakuntala H. Thilsted & Jessica R. Bogard, 2023. "Food systems transformation, animal-source foods consumption, inequality, and nutrition in Myanmar," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(5), pages 1345-1364, October.
    5. Shan Huang & Stewart M. Edie & Katie S. Collins & Nicholas M. A. Crouch & Kaustuv Roy & David Jablonski, 2023. "Diversity, distribution and intrinsic extinction vulnerability of exploited marine bivalves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Heimann, Tobias & Delzeit, Ruth, 2024. "Land for fish: Quantifying the connection between the aquaculture sector and agricultural markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Tran, Nhuong & Chu, Long & Chan, Chin Yee & Peart, Jeffrey & Nasr-Allah, Ahmed M. & Charo-Karisa, Harrison, 2022. "Prospects of fish supply-demand and its implications for food and nutrition security in Egypt," SocArXiv pbdkg, Center for Open Science.
    8. Naylor, Rosamond & Fang, Safari & Fanzo, Jessica, 2023. "A global view of aquaculture policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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