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Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

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  • James Rising

    (London School of Economics)

  • Naresh Devineni

    (City University of New York (City College))

Abstract

A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation. The fitted model parameters provide evidence of considerable existing climate adaptation across counties. If crop locations are held constant in the future, total agriculture profits for the six crops will drop by 31% for the temperature patterns of 2070 under RCP 8.5. When crop lands are reallocated to avoid yield decreases and take advantage of yield increases, half of these losses are avoided (16% loss), but 57% of counties are allocated crops different from those currently planted. Our results provide a framework for identifying crop adaptation opportunities, but suggest limits to their potential.

Suggested Citation

  • James Rising & Naresh Devineni, 2020. "Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18725-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18725-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Shibo & Zhang, Zhentao & Guo, Erjing & Fu, Zhenzhen & Gong, Jingjin & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2022. "Historical and projected impacts of climate change and technology on soybean yield in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    2. Balsher Singh Sidhu & Zia Mehrabi & Milind Kandlikar & Navin Ramankutty, 2022. "On the relative importance of climatic and non-climatic factors in crop yield models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Kiyama, Shoichi & Yamazaki, Satoshi, 2022. "Product switching and efficiency in a declining small-scale fishery," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Fan, Yunfei & He, Liuyue & Liu, Yi & Wang, Sufen, 2022. "Optimal cropping patterns can be conducive to sustainable irrigation: Evidence from the drylands of Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    5. Seungki Lee & Yongjie Ji & GianCarlo Moschini, 2021. "Agricultural Innovation and Adaptation to Climate Change: Insights from Genetically Engineered Maize," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 21-wp616, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.

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