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Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Munday

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Chris D. Jones

    (Met Office Hadley Centre
    University of Bristol)

  • Norman J. Steinert

    (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
    CICERO Center for International Climate Research)

  • Camilla Mathison

    (Met Office Hadley Centre
    University of Leeds)

  • Eleanor J. Burke

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Chris Smith

    (Met Office Hadley Centre
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Chris Huntingford

    (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Rebecca M. Varney

    (University of Exeter)

  • Andy J. Wiltshire

    (Met Office Hadley Centre
    University of Exeter)

Abstract

With global warming heading for 1.5 °C, understanding the risks of exceeding this threshold is increasingly urgent. Impacts on human and natural systems are expected to increase with further warming and some may be irreversible. Yet impacts under policy-relevant stabilization or overshoot pathways have not been well quantified. Here we report the risks of irreversible impacts on forest ecosystems, such as Amazon forest loss and high-latitude woody encroachment, under three scenarios that explore low levels of exceedance and overshoot beyond 1.5 °C. Long-term forest loss is mitigated by reducing global temperatures below 1.5 °C. The proximity of dieback risk thresholds to the bounds of the Paris Agreement global warming levels underscores the need for urgent action to mitigate climate change—and the risks of irreversible loss of an important ecosystem.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Munday & Chris D. Jones & Norman J. Steinert & Camilla Mathison & Eleanor J. Burke & Chris Smith & Chris Huntingford & Rebecca M. Varney & Andy J. Wiltshire, 2025. "Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(6), pages 650-655, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02327-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heleen L. Soest & Lara Aleluia Reis & Luiz Bernardo Baptista & Christoph Bertram & Jacques Després & Laurent Drouet & Michel Elzen & Panagiotis Fragkos & Oliver Fricko & Shinichiro Fujimori & Neil Gra, 2022. "Author Correction: Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-1, December.
    2. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    3. Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Daniel Huppmann & Joeri Rogelj & Valentina Bosetti & Anique-Marie Cabardos & Andre Deppermann & Laurent Drouet & Stefan Frank & Oliver Fricko & Shinichiro Fujimori &, 2021. "Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1063-1069, December.
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