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Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies

Author

Listed:
  • Gregor Semieniuk

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst
    SOAS University of London
    University of Sussex)

  • Philip B. Holden

    (The Open University)

  • Jean-Francois Mercure

    (University of Exeter
    University of Cambridge
    Cambridge Econometrics)

  • Pablo Salas

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL))

  • Hector Pollitt

    (University of Cambridge
    Cambridge Econometrics)

  • Katharine Jobson

    (SOAS University of London
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Pim Vercoulen

    (Cambridge Econometrics)

  • Unnada Chewpreecha

    (Cambridge Econometrics)

  • Neil R. Edwards

    (The Open University
    University of Cambridge)

  • Jorge E. Viñuales

    (University of Cambridge
    Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali (LUISS))

Abstract

The distribution of ownership of transition risk associated with stranded fossil-fuel assets remains poorly understood. We calculate that global stranded assets as present value of future lost profits in the upstream oil and gas sector exceed US$1 trillion under plausible changes in expectations about the effects of climate policy. We trace the equity risk ownership from 43,439 oil and gas production assets through a global equity network of 1.8 million companies to their ultimate owners. Most of the market risk falls on private investors, overwhelmingly in OECD countries, including substantial exposure through pension funds and financial markets. The ownership distribution reveals an international net transfer of more than 15% of global stranded asset risk to OECD-based investors. Rich country stakeholders therefore have a major stake in how the transition in oil and gas production is managed, as ongoing supporters of the fossil-fuel economy and potentially exposed owners of stranded assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Semieniuk & Philip B. Holden & Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas & Hector Pollitt & Katharine Jobson & Pim Vercoulen & Unnada Chewpreecha & Neil R. Edwards & Jorge E. Viñuales, 2022. "Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(6), pages 532-538, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01356-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01356-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mercure, Jean-François & Salas, Pablo, 2012. "An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 322-336.
    2. Battiston Stefano & Caldarelli Guido & D’Errico Marco & Gurciullo Stefano, 2016. "Leveraging the network: A stress-test framework based on DebtRank," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 33(3-4), pages 117-138, December.
    3. Mercure, Jean-François & Salas, Pablo, 2013. "On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 469-483.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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