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Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrad Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis

Author

Listed:
  • Tamas Ginter

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Andrassy University Budapest)

  • Patrik Tischler

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

After a number of shocks (including the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, in particular), global trade has undergone a transformation that is characterised by deglobalisation and decoupling tendencies. In this paper, we use descriptive statistics to analyse the short-term effects of exogenous shocks on international trade in the Visegrad countries. We find that between 2019 and 2022, deglobalisation tendencies were not persistent in the region. The trade-to-GDP ratio has exceeded the prepandemic levels (thus, the region is more globalised than in 2019), despite shortterm declines induced by the various shocks. While the region trades mainly with politically-economically aligned partners, the proportion of international trade with non-Western partners has also grown over the past four years. Trade with Russia has declined significantly since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, but decoupling from China has not started. However, certain country differences apply.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamas Ginter & Patrik Tischler, 2024. "Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrad Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 23(2), pages 56-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:23:y:2024:i:2:p:56-82
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Petra Vujakovic, 2009. "How to Measure Globalisation? A New Globalisation Index (NGI)," WIFO Working Papers 343, WIFO.
    2. Harold James, 2018. "Deglobalization: The Rise of Disembedded Unilateralism," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 219-237, November.
    3. Michael A. Witt, 2019. "De-globalization: Theories, predictions, and opportunities for international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 50(7), pages 1053-1077, September.
    4. Kálmán Kalotay & Magdolna Sass, 2021. "Foreign direct investment in the storm of the COVID-19 pandemic and the example of Visegrad countries," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 71(supplemen), pages 73-92, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamas Ginter, 2025. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation in the Western Balkans," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 24(2), pages 27-46.

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    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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