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Hedging with Chinese Aluminum Futures: International Evidence with Return and Volatility Spillover Indices Under Structural Breaks

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  • Chi Keung Marco Lau
  • Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin

Abstract

This paper examines the hedging performance of the Shanghai futures market, with the London futures market acting as the channel for volatility spillover. Taking into consideration structural change, basis effects, and return and volatility spillover effects, the authors find that the estimated hedging performance is not improved. Their findings suggest that the effectiveness of the hedging performance of aluminum futures contracts in China is not affected by the magnitude or direction of return and volatility spillovers. Therefore, even when the magnitude and direction of volatility spillover from other markets can be correctly predicted, the hedging performance of a futures contract cannot be significantly improved. This paper uses precise measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers based directly on the framework of vector autoregressive variance decompositions. The study also includes an analysis of both crisis and noncrisis episodes, with modeling on bursts in spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, 2013. "Hedging with Chinese Aluminum Futures: International Evidence with Return and Volatility Spillover Indices Under Structural Breaks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S1), pages 37-48, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:49:y:2013:i:s1:p:37-48
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ahmet Inci, 2011. "Capital Investment, Earnings, and Annual Stock Returns: Causality Relationships In China," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 1(2), pages 95-125, December.
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    3. Donald Lien & Li Yang, 2010. "The effects of structural breaks and long memory on currency hedging," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 607-632, July.
    4. Ahmet Can Inci, 2011. "Capital Investment, Earnings, and Annual Stock Returns: Causality Relationships in China," Eurasian Economic Review, Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 1(2), pages 95-125, Fall.
    5. Yujun Lian & Mohamad Sepehri & Maggie Foley, 2011. "Corporate Cash Holdings and Financial Crisis: An Empirical Study of Chinese Companies," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 1(2), pages 112-124, December.
    6. Yujun Lian & Mohamad Sepehri & Maggie Foley, 2011. "Corporate Cash Holdings and Financial Crisis: An Empirical Study of Chinese Companies," Eurasian Business Review, Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 1(2), pages 112-124, Fall.
    7. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Lau & Yongyang Su & Na Tan & Zhe Zhang, 2014. "Hedging China’s energy oil market risks," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(1), pages 99-112, June.
    2. Narayan, Seema & Doytch, Nadia & Nguyen, Tri Tung & Kluegel, Karl, 2016. "Trade of goods and services and risk sharing ability in international equity markets: Are these substitutes or complements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 485-503.
    3. Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2016. "Commodity markets volatility transmission: Roles of risk perceptions and uncertainty in financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 35-45.
    4. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.
    5. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Demir, Ender & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2013. "Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2016. "Intra- and inter-regional return and volatility spillovers across emerging and developed markets: Evidence from stock indices and stock index futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 96-114.

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