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Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Iran: An Application of SETAR-GARCH Model

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  • Falahi , Mohammad Ali

    (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad)

  • Hajamini , Mehdi

    (Yazd University)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the inflation and inflation uncertainty in Iran. Using mixed models of self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH), the inflation behaviors are examined for the period 1990M05-2013M10. This approach allows testing the hypotheses of Friedman-Ball, Pourgerami-Maskus, Cukierman-Meltzer, and Holland during different inflationary regimes. The results indicate that an increase in Iran's inflation leads to higher inflation uncertainty, as predicted by Friedman-Ball Hypothesis, while the other three hypotheses are not confirmed. Positive unidirectional causality from inflation to uncertainty seems to be significant only in periods of relatively higher inflation, but not in periods of low inflation. The finding is important because it confirms the existence of regime-dependent effect of inflation on public's expectations about future inflation; that, in trend, it reduces economic activity and misallocates resources. This is a new insight about asymmetric behaviour of inflation in Iran that has noteworthy implications for policy-makers, especially for price stabilizing and inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Falahi , Mohammad Ali & Hajamini , Mehdi, 2015. "Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Iran: An Application of SETAR-GARCH Model," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(2), pages 69-91, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:69-91
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation uncertainty; Nonlinearity; Self-exciting threshold autoregressive; Iran;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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