IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksp/journ1/v3y2016i1p32-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographic Transition Theory and Its Link to the Historical Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University, Australia.)

Abstract

In the absence of convincing evidence, data for Sweden and Mauritius are used in academic publications to illustrate the Demographic Transition Theory. These data are closely examined and found to be in clear contradiction of this theory. Demographic Transition Theory is also contradicted by the best available data for England. Other examples of contradicting evidence are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Demographic Transition Theory and Its Link to the Historical Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 32-49, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:3:y:2016:i:1:p:32-49
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/JEPE/article/download/618/798
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/JEPE/article/view/618
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Komlos, "undated". "The Industrial Revolution as the Escape from the Malthusian Trap," Articles by John Komlos 5, Department of Economics, University of Munich.
    2. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010. "The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 211-251, June.
    3. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    4. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    5. Carol Scotese Lehr, 2009. "Evidence on the Demographic Transition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 871-887, November.
    6. Mikko Myrskylä & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "Advances in development reverse fertility declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 741-743, August.
    7. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Demographic Catastrophes Did Not Shape the Growth of Human Population or the Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, June.
    2. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Changing the Direction of the Economic and Demographic Research," Papers 1708.08673, arXiv.org.
    3. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Interpretations of Hyperbolic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 594-626, December.
    4. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Application of Differential Equations in Projecting Growth Trajectories," Papers 1705.06557, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    5. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Changing the direction of the economic and demographic research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 288-309, September.
    6. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Population and Economic Growth in Australia: 8,000 BC - AD 1700 Extended to 60,000 BC," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 41-54, March.
    7. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Puzzling Properties of the Historical Growth Rate of Income Per Capita Explained," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 241-256, June.
    8. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 242-263, June.
    9. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 551-561, December.
    10. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Unresolved Mystery of the Great Divergence is Solved," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 196-219, June.
    11. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Application of differential equations in projecting growth trajectories," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 203-221, September.
    12. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    13. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 354-386, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carol H. Shiue, 2017. "Human capital and fertility in Chinese clans before modern growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 351-396, December.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Changing the direction of the economic and demographic research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 288-309, September.
    3. Nicola Barban & Elisabetta De Cao & Marco Francesconi, 2021. "Gene-Environment Effects on Female Fertility," CESifo Working Paper Series 9337, CESifo.
    4. Jakob Madsen & Holger Strulik, 2023. "Testing unified growth theory: Technological progress and the child quantity‐quality tradeoff," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 235-275, January.
    5. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    6. Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2015. "The fertility transition around the world," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 31-44, January.
    7. Anthony Mveyange, 2015. "On the fertility transition in Africa: Income, child mortality, or education?," WIDER Working Paper Series 089, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2022. "The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-90-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    9. Madsen, Jakob B. & Robertson, Peter E. & Ye, Longfeng, 2019. "Malthus was right: Explaining a millennium of stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 51-68.
    10. Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati & Andrea Falcone & Giovanni Quaranta & Rosanna Salvia & Renata Vcelakova & Antonio Giménez-Morera, 2021. "Re-Framing the Latent Nexus between Land-Use Change, Urbanization and Demographic Transitions in Advanced Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    12. Michael Grimm & Isabel Günther & Kenneth Harttgen & Stephan Klasen, 2022. "Slow-downs of fertility decline: When should we call it a 'fertility stall'?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(26), pages 737-766.
    13. Sunha Myong & JungJae Park & Junjian Yi, 2021. "Social Norms and Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2429-2466.
    14. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
    15. Anthony Mveyange, 2015. "On the fertility transition in Africa: Income, child mortality, or education?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-089, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-133, June.
    17. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    18. Abebe HAILEMARIAM, 2024. "Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 31-54, March.
    19. Niccolò Innocenti & Daniele Vignoli & Luciana Lazzeretti, 2021. "Economic complexity and fertility: insights from a low fertility country," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(8), pages 1388-1402, August.
    20. Miyake, Yusuke, 2022. "Endogenous childcare costs in R&D based model," MPRA Paper 112491, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population growth; Economic growth; Malthusian stagnation; Unified Growth Theory; Demographic Growth Theory; Stages of growth.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • A20 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - General
    • B10 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • Y80 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines - - - Related Disciplines

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:3:y:2016:i:1:p:32-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bilal KARGI (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kspjournals.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.