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Diskretionäre Fiskalpolitik: Pro und Kontra

Die Schweizer Wirtschaft befindet sich in einer Rezession, von der sie sich nicht schnell erholen wird. In dieser Situation kann die Konjunkturpolitik dazu beitragen, eine selbstverstärkende Abwärtsspirale zu verhindern und soziale Härten abzufedern. Da die Geldpolitik derzeit an Grenzen stösst, hat die Fiskalpolitik an Bedeutung gewonnen. Zwei Stimulierungspakete sind vom Bund bereits beschlossen worden, ein drittes steht zur Debatte. Dargelegt werden hier die positiven Effekte, die von verschiedenen Massnahmen ausgehen können, sowie Argumente, die gegen die Fiskalpolitik aufgeführt werden. Mit dem KOF-Makromodell werden vier alternative Politikvarianten für die Schweiz simuliert und deren Wirkung verglichen. Aus konjunktureller Sicht schneidet dabei eine diskretionäre Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben am besten ab.

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Article provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its journal KOF Analysen.

Volume (Year): 3 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 25-43

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Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:25-43
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  1. Robert-Paul Berben & Teunis Brosens, 2005. "The Impact of Government Debt on Private Consumption in OECD Countries," DNB Working Papers 045, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," Discussion Paper 2002-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Selma Mahfouz & Richard Hemming & Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 02/208, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Feldstein, Martin, 1982. "Government deficits and aggregate demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
  6. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
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