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Ballot order effects in direct democracy elections

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  • John G. Matsusaka

    (University of Southern California)

Abstract

Many political practitioners believe that voters are more likely to approve propositions listed at the top than the bottom of the ballot, potentially distorting democratic decision making, and this belief influences election laws across the United States. Numerous studies have investigated ballot order effects in candidate elections, but there is little evidence for direct democracy elections, and identification of causal effects is challenging. This paper offers two strategies for identifying the effect of ballot order in proposition elections, using data from California during 1958–2014 and Texas during 1986–2015. The evidence suggests that propositions are not advantaged by being listed at the top compared to the bottom of the ballot. Approval rates are lower with more propositions on the ballot.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Matsusaka, 2016. "Ballot order effects in direct democracy elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 257-276, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:167:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-016-0340-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-016-0340-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Selb, 2008. "Supersized votes: ballot length, uncertainty, and choice in direct legislation elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 319-336, June.
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    3. Darren Grant, 2017. "The ballot order effect is huge: evidence from Texas," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 421-442, September.
    4. Ned Augenblick & Scott Nicholson, 2016. "Ballot Position, Choice Fatigue, and Voter Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(2), pages 460-480.
    5. John G. Matsusaka, 2005. "Direct Democracy Works," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 185-206, Spring.
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    7. Mueller, John E., 1969. "Voting on the Propositions: Ballot Patterns and Historical Trends in California," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 1197-1212, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jarosław Flis & Marek M. Kaminski, 2022. "Party-related primacy effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from a natural experiment in Polish local elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(3), pages 345-363, March.
    2. Stutzer, Alois & Baltensperger, Michael & Meier, Armando N., 2018. "Overstrained Citizens?," Working papers 2018/25, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    3. Stutzer, Alois & Baltensperger, Michael & Meier, Armando N., 2019. "Overstrained citizens? The number of ballot propositions and the quality of the decision process in direct democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 483-500.
    4. Matsusaka, John G., 2018. "Special Interest Influence under Direct versus Representative Democracy," Working Papers 278, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    5. Darren Grant, 2017. "The ballot order effect is huge: evidence from Texas," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 421-442, September.
    6. Lucie Coufalová & Štěpán Mikula, 2023. "The grass is not greener on the other side: the role of attention in voting behavior," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 194(1), pages 205-223, January.

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