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The Ballot Order Effect is Huge: Evidence from Texas

Author

Listed:
  • Darren Grant

    (Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University)

Abstract

Texas primary and runoff elections provide an ideal test of the ballot order hypothesis, because ballot order is randomized within each county and there are many counties and contests to analyze. Doing so for all statewide offices contested in the 2014 Democratic and Republican primaries and runoffs yields precise estimates of the ballot order effect across twenty-four different contests. Except for a few high-profile, high-information races, the ballot order effect is large, especially in down-ballot races and judicial positions. In these, going from last to first on the ballot raises a candidate’s vote share by nearly ten percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Darren Grant, 2016. "The Ballot Order Effect is Huge: Evidence from Texas," Working Papers 1606, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:shs:wpaper:1606
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    File URL: http://www.shsu.edu/academics/economics-and-international-business/documents/wp_series/wp16-06_paper.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Grant, 1998. "Searching for the Downsian Voter with a Simple Structural Model," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 107-126, July.
    2. Bryan C. McCannon & Paul Walker, 2016. "Endogenous competence and a limit to the Condorcet Jury Theorem," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Ho, Daniel E. & Imai, Kosuke, 2006. "Randomization Inference With Natural Experiments: An Analysis of Ballot Effects in the 2003 California Recall Election," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 888-900, September.
    4. Paul N. Thompson & Joseph Whitley, 2017. "The effect of school district and municipal government financial health information on local tax election outcomes: evidence from fiscal stress labels in Ohio," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 265-288, March.
    5. John G. Matsusaka, 2016. "Ballot order effects in direct democracy elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 257-276, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Mustillo & John Polga-Hecimovich, 2020. "Party, candidate, and voter incentives under free list proportional representation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(1), pages 143-167, January.
    2. Jarosław Flis & Marek M. Kaminski, 2022. "Party-related primacy effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from a natural experiment in Polish local elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(3), pages 345-363, March.
    3. John G. Matsusaka, 2016. "Ballot order effects in direct democracy elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 257-276, June.
    4. Darren Grant, 2023. "Uncovering bias in order assignment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(1), pages 82-98, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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