IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v54y2019i1d10.1007_s10614-017-9719-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Applying Independent Component Analysis and Predictive Systems for Algorithmic Trading

Author

Listed:
  • Attila Ceffer

    (Budapest University of Technology and Economics)

  • Janos Levendovszky

    (Budapest University of Technology and Economics)

  • Norbert Fogarasi

    (Budapest University of Technology and Economics)

Abstract

In this paper, a Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous inputs and a support vector machine are proposed for algorithmic trading by predicting the future value of financial time series. These architectures are capable of modeling and predicting vector autoregressive VAR(p) time series. In order to avoid overfitting, the input is pre-processed by independent component analysis to filter out the most noise like component. In this way, the accuracy of the prediction and the trading performance is increased. The proposed algorithms have a small number of free parameters which makes fast learning and trading possible. The method is not only tested on single asset price series, but also on predicting the value of mean reverting portfolios obtained by maximizing the predictability parameter of VAR(1) processes. The tests were first performed on artificially generated data and then on real data selected from exchange traded fund time series including bid–ask spread. In both cases the proposed method could achieve positive returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Attila Ceffer & Janos Levendovszky & Norbert Fogarasi, 2019. "Applying Independent Component Analysis and Predictive Systems for Algorithmic Trading," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 281-303, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:54:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10614-017-9719-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-017-9719-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-017-9719-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-017-9719-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexei Chekhlov & Stanislav Uryasev & Michael Zabarankin, 2005. "Drawdown Measure In Portfolio Optimization," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 13-58.
    2. Sipos, I. Róbert & Levendovszky, János, 2013. "Optimizing sparse mean reverting portfolios," Algorithmic Finance, IOS Press, vol. 2(2), pages 127-139.
    3. Fogarasi, Norbert & Levendovszky, Janos, 2013. "Sparse, mean reverting portfolio selection using simulated annealing," Algorithmic Finance, IOS Press, vol. 2(3-4), pages 197-211.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abbas Haider & Hui Wang & Bryan Scotney & Glenn Hawe, 2022. "Predictive Market Making via Machine Learning," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. I. Róbert Sipos & Attila Ceffer & János Levendovszky, 2017. "Parallel Optimization of Sparse Portfolios with AR-HMMs," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 563-578, April.
    2. Neofytos Rodosthenous & Hongzhong Zhang, 2020. "When to sell an asset amid anxiety about drawdowns," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1422-1460, October.
    3. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078, January.
    4. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M., 2006. "Portfolio selection with a drawdown constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3171-3189, November.
    5. Harris, Richard D.F. & Mazibas, Murat, 2013. "Dynamic hedge fund portfolio construction: A semi-parametric approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 139-149.
    6. Drenovak, Mikica & Ranković, Vladimir & Urošević, Branko & Jelic, Ranko, 2022. "Mean-Maximum Drawdown Optimization of Buy-and-Hold Portfolios Using a Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    7. Vladimir Cherny & Jan Obłój, 2013. "Portfolio optimisation under non-linear drawdown constraints in a semimartingale financial model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 771-800, October.
    8. Allen, D.E. & McAleer, M.J. & Powell, R.J. & Singh, A.K., 2015. "Down-side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. David Landriault & Bin Li & Hongzhong Zhang, 2014. "On the Frequency of Drawdowns for Brownian Motion Processes," Papers 1403.1183, arXiv.org.
    10. Hongzhong Zhang & Olympia Hadjiliadis, 2012. "Drawdowns and the Speed of Market Crash," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 739-752, September.
    11. Yi Huang & Wei Zhu & Duan Li & Shushang Zhu & Shikun Wang, 2023. "Integrating Different Informations for Portfolio Selection," Papers 2305.17881, arXiv.org.
    12. Cheng Peng & Young Shin Kim & Stefan Mittnik, 2022. "Portfolio Optimization on Multivariate Regime-Switching GARCH Model with Normal Tempered Stable Innovation," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-23, May.
    13. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K Hassani, 2014. "Distortion Risk Measures or the Transformation of Unimodal Distributions into Multimodal Functions," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14008, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    14. Zhang, Hongzhong & Leung, Tim & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2013. "Stochastic modeling and fair valuation of drawdown insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 840-850.
    15. Ola Mahmoud, 2015. "The Temporal Dimension of Risk," Papers 1501.01573, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    16. Francesco Cesarone & Manuel Luis Martino & Federica Ricca & Andrea Scozzari, 2023. "Managing ESG Ratings Disagreement in Sustainable Portfolio Selection," Papers 2312.10739, arXiv.org.
    17. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2014. "European Market Portfolio Diversifcation Strategies across the GFC," Working Papers in Economics 14/25, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    18. Ankush Agarwal & Ronnie Sircar, 2017. "Portfolio Benchmarking under Drawdown Constraint and Stochastic Sharpe Ratio," Working Papers hal-01388399, HAL.
    19. Kyo Yamamoto & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2009. "Probability Distribution and Option Pricing for Drawdown in a Stochastic Volatility Environment," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-625, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    20. Martin Branda & Miloš Kopa, 2012. "DEA-Risk Efficiency and Stochastic Dominance Efficiency of Stock Indices," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(2), pages 106-124, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:54:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10614-017-9719-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.