A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect
From 1992 through early 2004, crude oil prices were predictable by using OECD’s relative inventories and OPEC’s excess production capacity. However, since 2004, estimated inventories and excess production capacity under-predict crude oil prices. Using 3-D graphical analyzes, three regimes are identified in crude oil markets during the period from January 1992 to December 2007, reflecting market conditions and OPEC policy changes. These graphics show the changing relationship between crude oil price, inventories and excess production capacity. To reflect this, a ratchet variable, derived from cumulative excess production capacity, is incorporated into the forecasting model to reflect the changing behavior on both demand and supply sides. This model provides improved forecasts for the post Gulf War I time period over models without the ratchet mechanism. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2009
Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Postal:Suite 650, International Tower, 229 Peachtree Street, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30303
Phone: (404) 965-1555
Fax: (404) 965-1556
Web page: http://www.iaes.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11293/PS2|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005.
"Storage and Commodity Markets,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, December.
- Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 1991. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521326162, December.
- James Duesenberry, 1973. "Some Observations on Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 508-514.
- Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 67-90.
- Jared Enzler & Lewis Johnson & John Paulus, 1976. "Some Problems of Money Demand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1), pages 261-282.
- Stephen G. Powell, 1990. "The Target Capacity-Utilization Model of OPEC and the Dynamics of the World Oil Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 27-64.
- Carol Dahl & Mine Yucel, 1991. "Testing Alternative Hypotheses of Oil Producer Behavior," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 117-138.
- repec:kap:iaecre:v:12:y:2006:i:3:p:390-394 is not listed on IDEAS
- Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1998. "Expandability, Reversibility, and Optimal Capacity Choice," NBER Working Papers 6373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dixit, Avinash K. & Pindyck, Robert S. & Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research., 2003. "Expandability, reversibility, and optimal capacity choice," Working papers 97-006WP., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Duesenberry, James S, 1974. "Alternatives to Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 105-111, May.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 2000. "The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-266, April.
- Stevens, Thomas H. & Adams, Gail, 1986. "Testing For Changes In The Price Elasticity Of Residential Electricity Demand," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 15(2), October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)