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A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Ye
  • John Zyren
  • Carol Blumberg
  • Joanne Shore

Abstract

From 1992 through early 2004, crude oil prices were predictable by using OECD’s relative inventories and OPEC’s excess production capacity. However, since 2004, estimated inventories and excess production capacity under-predict crude oil prices. Using 3-D graphical analyzes, three regimes are identified in crude oil markets during the period from January 1992 to December 2007, reflecting market conditions and OPEC policy changes. These graphics show the changing relationship between crude oil price, inventories and excess production capacity. To reflect this, a ratchet variable, derived from cumulative excess production capacity, is incorporated into the forecasting model to reflect the changing behavior on both demand and supply sides. This model provides improved forecasts for the post Gulf War I time period over models without the ratchet mechanism. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ye & John Zyren & Carol Blumberg & Joanne Shore, 2009. "A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 37(1), pages 37-50, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:37:y:2009:i:1:p:37-50
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-008-9158-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
    2. He, Angela W.W. & Kwok, Jerry T.K. & Wan, Alan T.K., 2010. "An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1499-1506, November.
    3. He, Kaijian & Yu, Lean & Lai, Kin Keung, 2012. "Crude oil price analysis and forecasting using wavelet decomposed ensemble model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 564-574.
    4. Michael Ye & John Zyren & Joanne Shore & Thomas Lee, 2010. "Crude Oil Futures as an Indicator of Market Changes: A Graphical Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(3), pages 257-268, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil prices; Crude oil inventory; Crude oil excess production capacity; Duesenberry ratchet effect; Q00 Agriculture and Natural Resources;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General

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