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Samuelson Hypothesis & Indian Commodity Derivatives Market

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  • Saurabh Gupta
  • Prabina Rajib

Abstract

Samuelson ( 1965 ) devised that futures price volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its expiration. The relation amid the volatility and time to maturity has significant inference for hedging strategies. Interestingly, so far the empirical evidence in favor of the Samuelson Hypothesis (maturity effect) is mixed in various markets. Considering no significant work to examine the relationship is so far carried out in commodity derivative markets of India, this paper ordeal the Samuelson Hypothesis on 8 commodities traded on Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), India. We have examined the issue by applying different regression techniques to test the hypothesis for 8 commodities (Aluminium, Nickel, Copper, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Wheat) using inter-day data on MCX India. In order to test the Samuelson’s hypothesis, tests have been conducted using a series of GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH models by including trading volume, open interest and time-to-maturity in the conditional variance equation. From our results, it is concluded that Samuelson’s hypothesis does not hold true for majority of commodity contracts considered. Our results also find that volatility series depend on the trading volume, compared to the time-to-maturity or open interest. As Samuelson hypothesis does not hold true for majority of commodity contracts, traders in Indian commodity derivative markets should not bias their decisions solely based on the time-to-maturity, but should also consider trading volume and open interest as they are an important determinant of price volatility. They should also consider the possibility of leverage effect while predicting future price volatilities, and the associated margin requirements. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Saurabh Gupta & Prabina Rajib, 2012. "Samuelson Hypothesis & Indian Commodity Derivatives Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 19(4), pages 331-352, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:331-352
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-012-9152-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Isita Mukherjee & Bhaskar Goswami, 2017. "The volatility of returns from commodity futures: evidence from India," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, December.

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