IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effects of Roster Turnover on Demand in the National Basketball Association


  • Alan L. Morse

    () (University of Northern Colorado)

  • Stephen L. Shapiro

    (University of Northern Colorado)

  • Chad D. McEvoy

    () (Illinois State University)

  • Daniel A. Rascher

    () (University of San Francisco)


The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of roster turnover on demand in the National Basketball Association (NBA) over a five-year period (2000–2005) and compare these results to previous research on turnover in Major League Baseball (MLB). A censored regression equation was developed to examine the relationship between roster turnover and season attendance, while controlling for other potentially confounding variables in the model. The censored regression model was used to account for the capacity constraints by forecasting the level of demand beyond capacity using information from the uncensored observations. The regression model was found to be significant with a log-likelihood statistic of 113.631. Previous attendance, current winning percentage, previous winning percentage, number of all-star players, local major sport competition, and team history were found to be significant predictors of attendance. However, the variables measuring the effects of roster turnover were not found to be significant. There were substantial differences in the effect of roster turnover on attendance in the NBA compared with MLB. In addition, these findings provide evidence for using censored regression when dealing with constrained variables. Sellouts in the NBA appear to have an effect on all of the variables in the demand model. Future research will need to be conducted to help sport managers understand the role of roster turnover in specific professional leagues and to better understand the importance of using a censored regression model.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan L. Morse & Stephen L. Shapiro & Chad D. McEvoy & Daniel A. Rascher, 2008. "The Effects of Roster Turnover on Demand in the National Basketball Association," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 3(1), pages 8-18, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:jsf:intjsf:v:3:y:2008:i:1:p:8-18

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full-text download requires subscription from FIT.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Daniel, Rascher & Chad, McEvoy & Mark, Nagel & Matt, Brown, 2007. "Variable Ticket Pricing in Major League Baseball," MPRA Paper 25803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Scully, Gerald W, 1974. "Pay and Performance in Major League Baseball," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 915-930, December.
    3. Leo Kahane & Stephen Shmanske, 1997. "Team roster turnover and attendance in major league baseball," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 425-431.
    4. Whitney, James D, 1988. "Winning Games versus Winning Championships: The Economics of Fan Interest and Team Performance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 703-724, October.
    5. McEvoy, Chad D. & Nagel, Mark S. & DeSchriver, Timothy D. & Brown, Matthew T., 2005. "Facility Age and Attendance in Major League Baseball," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 19-41, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Yiannis Nikolaidis, 2015. "Building a basketball game strategy through statistical analysis of data," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 227(1), pages 137-159, April.
    2. Drayer, Joris & Shapiro, Stephen L., 2011. "An examination into the factors that influence consumers’ perceptions of value," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 389-398.

    More about this item


    censored regression; demand; player movement;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jsf:intjsf:v:3:y:2008:i:1:p:8-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.