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An Econometric Model of Retail Rents in the United Kingdom

The present study constructs a model of retail rent determination at the aggregate level in the United Kingdom. While recognising the influence of very localised factors in the determination of retail rents, this paper explores the importance of broad economic forces and trends in the retail property market as determinants of retail rental values. A dynamic specification based on GDP, consumer expenditure and past values of retail rents in the U.K. This model provides satisfactory results and it is subsequently used to produce dynamic forecasts four quarters ahead. The forecasts suggested that U.K. retail rents would exhibit a slight recovery in the second half of 1994 terminating the downward trend since the first quarter of 1990. However, a small drop again was forecast for the first half of 1995.

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Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 10 (1995)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 519-530

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:10:n:5:1995:p:519-530
Contact details of provider: Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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  1. C.F. Sirmans & Krisandra A. Guidry, 1993. "The Determinants of Shopping Center Rents," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(1), pages 107-116.
  2. Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-21, May.
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