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Potenziale und Grenzen eines nutzenbasierten ökonomischen Leitbildes für die amtliche Inflationsmessung

  • Ludwig von Auer

    ()

    (Universitaet Magdeburg)

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    Welche Bedeutung sollte dem ökonomischen Theorieansatz und damit insbesondere dem ökonomischen Kostenindex der Lebenshaltung (im Folgenden als "nutzenbasierter Ausgabenindex", NBA, bezeichnet) in der amtlichen Inflationsmessung eingeräumt werden? In diesem Beitrag werden die Potenziale des NBA ausgelotet. Zugleich werden aber auch die Grenzen aufgezeigt. Es wäre insbesondere ein Fehler, den ökonomischen Theorieansatz und dabei den NBA als das einzig legitime Leitbild für die Inflationsmessung zu protegieren. Der NBA kann nicht für alle Bereiche der Inflationsmessung befriedigende Antworten liefern. Ferner steht bislang keine konsistente, schnelle und zuverlässige Berechnungsmethode für den NBA zur Verfügung. Letztlich muss die offizielle Inflation deshalb auf Basis eines statistischen Preisindex (SP) berechnet werden. Bei der Suche nach geeigneten SPs kann man einer direkten und einer indirekten Suchstrategie folgen. In der direkten Strategie muss ein SP bestimmte Grundanforderungen an ein vernünftiges Inflationsmaß erfüllen (axiomatische Indextheorie). In der indirekten Strategie muss ein SP den NBA möglichst gut approximieren (superlative Indizes). Befürworter des NBA sind der indirekten Suchstrategie verhaftet, Gegner des NBA eher der direkten Suchstrategie. Manche erachten beide Strategien als nutzlos. In dieser Studie wird erläutert, dass beide Strategien wichtige Impulse für eine gute SP-Wahl und damit für eine verbesserte Inflationsmessung geben können.

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    Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 225 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 283-302

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    Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:225:y:2005:i:3:p:283-302
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