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Bankruptcy Prediction Model Using Neural Networks

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  • Xavier Bredart

Abstract

Belgium has faced an important number of corporate bankruptcies during the last decade. The aim of this paper is to develop a model that predicts bankruptcy using three financial ratios that are simple and easily available, even for small businesses. We used a sample of 3,728 Belgian Small and Medium Enterprises (SME’s) including 1,864 businesses having been declared bankrupt between 2002 and 2012 and conducted a neural network analysis. Our results indicate that the neural network methodology based on three financial ratios that are simple and easily available as explanatory variables shows a good classification rate of more or less 80 percent. Results of this study may be of interest for financial institutions and for academics.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Bredart, 2014. "Bankruptcy Prediction Model Using Neural Networks," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(2), pages 124-124, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:afr111:v:3:y:2014:i:2:p:124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marc Declerc & Benoît Heins & Charles Van Wymeersch, 1992. "Flux financiers et prévision de faillite: une analyse comportementale de l'entreprise," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 136, pages 415-443.
    2. Yang, Z. R. & Platt, Marjorie B. & Platt, Harlan D., 1999. "Probabilistic Neural Networks in Bankruptcy Prediction," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 67-74, February.
    3. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    4. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    5. Ooghe, H. & Spaenjers, C. & Pieter vandermoere, 2005. "Business failure prediction: simple-intuitive models versus statistical models," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2005-22, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adler Haymans Manurung & Derwin Suhartono & Benny Hutahayan & Noptovius Halimawan, 2023. "Probability Bankruptcy Using Support Vector Regression Machines," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(1), pages 1-3.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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