IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jes/wpaper/y2019v11i3p234-258.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The trend of the Romanian migration flow explained by means of statistical models

Author

Listed:
  • Daniela Gabriela COZMA

    (PhD student at Doctoral School of Economics and Business Administration, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iasi, Romania)

  • Margareta BOCANCIA

    (PhD student at Doctoral School of Economics and Business Administration, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iasi, Romania)

Abstract

Over time, the migration phenomenon developed an interdependence relationship with economic development, political stability and social factors. Starting from this context, this paper aims at studying the Romanian emigration flow according to the country of destination between 1990-2016 and the way in which the gross domestic product per capita (GDP) influenced this emigration flow between 2008-2016. The initial hypothesis was that only certain countries were priority targets of the Romanian emigration flow. In our scientific approach we used EUROSTAT and TEMPO databases.In the first part of the paper we used cluster analyzes to confirm that only certain countries are priority destinations, and in the second part we included a multiple linear regression model to find out if the gross domestic product of the country affects in any way the decision to emigrate

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Gabriela COZMA & Margareta BOCANCIA, 2019. "The trend of the Romanian migration flow explained by means of statistical models," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11(3), pages 234-258, Octomber.
    • Handle: RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2019:v:11:i:3:p:234-258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ceswp.uaic.ro/articles/CESWP2019_XI3_COZ.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sorin Manole & Laura Panoiu & Adriana Paunescu, 2017. "Impact of Migration upon a Receiving Country’s Economic Development," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 670-670, August.
    2. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    3. Dr Tatiana Fic & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lucy Stokes & Dawn Holland, 2011. "Labour mobility within the EU," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 379, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    6. Kim, Young-Bae & Levine, Paul & Lotti, Emanuela, 2010. "Migration, Skill Composition and Growth," National Institute Economic Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 213, pages 5-19, July.
    7. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2008. "Spatial Econometric Modeling Of Origin‐Destination Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 941-967, December.
    8. Jørgen Carling, 2014. "Scripting Remittances: Making Sense of Money Transfers in Transnational Relationships," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 218-262, September.
    9. Young-Bae Kim & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2010. "Migration, Skill Composition And Growth," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 213(1), pages 5-19, July.
    10. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Winter, 2020. "“It’s the Economy, Stupid!”: On the Relative Impact of Political and Economic Determinants on Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 207-252, April.
    2. Schmid, Lena & Renner, Laura, 2020. "The Decision to Flee: Analyzing Gender-Specific Determinants of International Refugee Migration," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224596, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Adriana Ana Maria Davidescu & Vasile Alecsandru Strat & Raluca Mariana Grosu & Ion-Daniel Zgura, 2017. "Determinants of Romanians' Migration within the European Union: Static and Dynamic Panel Gravity Approaches," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 621-621, August.
    4. Krieger, Tim & Renner, Laura & Schmid, Lena, 2019. "Where do migrants from countries ridden by environmental conflict settle? On the scale, selection and sorting of conflict-induced migration," Discussion Paper Series 2019-03, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    5. Laila Touhami Morghem & Khawlah Ali Abdalla Spetan, 2020. "Determinants of International Migration: An Applied Study on Selected Arab Countries (1995-2017)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 6-19.
    6. Kahanec, Martin, 2012. "Skilled Labor Flows: Lessons from the European Union," IZA Research Reports 49, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Martin Guzi & Štěpán Mikula, 2022. "Reforms that keep you at home: The effects of economic transition on migration," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 289-310, April.
    8. Cevat Giray Aksoy & Panu Poutvaara, 2019. "Refugees' and Irregular Migrants' Self-Selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7781, CESifo.
    9. Sorin Manole & Laura Panoiu & Adriana Paunescu, 2017. "Impact of Migration upon a Receiving Country’s Economic Development," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 670-670, August.
    10. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Eine Frage der Geographie: Räumliche Dimensionen von Handel, Migration und Wachstum," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    11. Karina Acosta & Hengyu Gu, 2022. "Locked up? The development and internal migration nexus in Colombia," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 304, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Gordon Hanson & Chen Liu & Craig McIntosh, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Low-Skilled Immigration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 83-168.
    13. Jean Gabszewicz & Ornella Tarola & Skerdilajda Zanaj, 2016. "Migration, wages and income taxes," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(3), pages 434-453, June.
    14. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2017. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Paper 96d89f28-0e80-4703-9b33-6, Agence française de développement.
    15. Alícia Adserà & Mariola Pytliková, 2015. "The Role of Language in Shaping International Migration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(586), pages 49-81, August.
    16. Auer Daniel & Tjaden Jasper & Römer Friederike, 2020. "Corruption and the Desire to Leave Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Corruption as a Driver of Emigration Intentions," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, January.
    17. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Johannes Bollen, 2018. "Estimating migration changes from the EU’s free movement of people principle," CPB Discussion Paper 385, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Zovanga L Kone & Maggie Y Liu & Aaditya Mattoo & Caglar Ozden & Siddharth Sharma, 2018. "Internal borders and migration in India," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 729-759.
    19. Daniel Meierrieks & Laura Renner, 2017. "Stymied ambition: does a lack of economic freedom lead to migration?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 977-1005, July.
    20. Bogatzki, Tamara, 2021. "Heterogeneity in migration network effects across cultures," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Migration, Integration, Transnationalization SP VI 2021-102, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2019:v:11:i:3:p:234-258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csjesro.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alupului Ciprian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csjesro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.