IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jes/wpaper/y2019v11i3p234-258.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The trend of the Romanian migration flow explained by means of statistical models

Author

Listed:
  • Daniela Gabriela COZMA

    (PhD student at Doctoral School of Economics and Business Administration, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iasi, Romania)

  • Margareta BOCANCIA

    (PhD student at Doctoral School of Economics and Business Administration, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iasi, Romania)

Abstract

Over time, the migration phenomenon developed an interdependence relationship with economic development, political stability and social factors. Starting from this context, this paper aims at studying the Romanian emigration flow according to the country of destination between 1990-2016 and the way in which the gross domestic product per capita (GDP) influenced this emigration flow between 2008-2016. The initial hypothesis was that only certain countries were priority targets of the Romanian emigration flow. In our scientific approach we used EUROSTAT and TEMPO databases.In the first part of the paper we used cluster analyzes to confirm that only certain countries are priority destinations, and in the second part we included a multiple linear regression model to find out if the gross domestic product of the country affects in any way the decision to emigrate

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Gabriela COZMA & Margareta BOCANCIA, 2019. "The trend of the Romanian migration flow explained by means of statistical models," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11(3), pages 234-258, Octomber.
    • Handle: RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2019:v:11:i:3:p:234-258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ceswp.uaic.ro/articles/CESWP2019_XI3_COZ.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dr Tatiana Fic & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lucy Stokes & Dawn Holland, 2011. "Labour mobility within the EU," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 379, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    4. Dr Tatiana Fic & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lucy Stokes & Dawn Holland, 2011. "Labour mobility within the EU," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 379, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Kim, Young-Bae & Levine, Paul & Lotti, Emanuela, 2010. "Migration, Skill Composition and Growth," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 213, pages 5-19, July.
    6. Julie Fry, 2014. "Migration and Macroeconomic Performance in New Zealand: Theory and Evidence," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    7. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2008. "Spatial Econometric Modeling Of Origin‐Destination Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 941-967, December.
    8. Jørgen Carling, 2014. "Scripting Remittances: Making Sense of Money Transfers in Transnational Relationships," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 218-262, September.
    9. Young-Bae Kim & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2010. "Migration, Skill Composition And Growth," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 213(1), pages 5-19, July.
    10. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    11. Sorin Manole & Laura Panoiu & Adriana Paunescu, 2017. "Impact of Migration upon a Receiving Country’s Economic Development," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 670-670, August.
    12. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    13. Raluca Mariana Grosu, 2017. "International Migration ? Economic Implications," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 617-617, August.
    14. Roel Jennissen, 2007. "Causality Chains in the International Migration Systems Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(4), pages 411-436, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adriana Ana Maria Davidescu & Vasile Alecsandru Strat & Raluca Mariana Grosu & Ion-Daniel Zgura, 2017. "Determinants of Romanians' Migration within the European Union: Static and Dynamic Panel Gravity Approaches," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 621-621, August.
    2. Sorin Manole & Laura Panoiu & Adriana Paunescu, 2017. "Impact of Migration upon a Receiving Country’s Economic Development," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 670-670, August.
    3. Simon Winter, 2020. "“It’s the Economy, Stupid!”: On the Relative Impact of Political and Economic Determinants on Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 207-252, April.
    4. Kahanec, Martin, 2012. "Skilled Labor Flows: Lessons from the European Union," IZA Research Reports 49, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Schmid, Lena & Renner, Laura, 2020. "The Decision to Flee: Analyzing Gender-Specific Determinants of International Refugee Migration," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224596, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Krieger, Tim & Renner, Laura & Schmid, Lena, 2019. "Where do migrants from countries ridden by environmental conflict settle? On the scale, selection and sorting of conflict-induced migration," Discussion Paper Series 2019-03, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    7. Laila Touhami Morghem & Khawlah Ali Abdalla Spetan, 2020. "Determinants of International Migration: An Applied Study on Selected Arab Countries (1995-2017)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 6-19.
    8. Gabriel Lyrio de Oliveira & André Luis Squarize Chagas, 2020. "Effects of a cash transfer programme on origin–destination migration flows," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 83-104, February.
    9. Ye Seul Choi & Up Lim, 2015. "Effects of Regional Creative Milieu on Interregional Migration of the Highly Educated in Korea: Evidence from Hierarchical Cross-Classified Linear Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Eric Rougier & Nicolas Yol, 2018. "The volatility effect of diaspora’s location: A migration portfolio approach," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2018-09, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    11. Lantz, Tiffany Louise & Arbolino, Roberta & Caracciolo, Francesco & Cembalo, Luigi, 2017. "What push migrants out of their rural areas? Empirical evidences from Sub-Saharan Africa," 2017 Sixth AIEAA Conference, June 15-16, Piacenza, Italy 261269, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    12. Daniel Meierrieks & Laura Renner, 2017. "Stymied ambition: does a lack of economic freedom lead to migration?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 977-1005, July.
    13. Mauro Lanati & Alessandra Venturini, 2017. "The Import of “cultural goods” and emigration: an unexplored relation," RSCAS Working Papers 2017/24, European University Institute.
    14. Spring, Eva & Grossmann, Volker, 2013. "Does Bilateral Trust Affect International Movement of Goods and Labor?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79956, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Koji Murayama & Jun Nagayasu & Lamia Bazzaoui, 2022. "Spatial Dependence, Social Networks, and Economic Structures in Japanese Regional Labor Migration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-31, February.
    16. Mauro Lanati & Rainer Thiele, 2024. "The link between economic growth and emigration from developing countries: Does migrants' skill composition matter?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(1), pages 213-248, February.
    17. Martin Kahanec, 2015. "Labour market impacts of post-enlargement migration on hosts and stayers in EU labour markets," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 21(3), pages 359-372, August.
    18. Ma, Shuang & Li, Xueluan & Li, Ding & Guo, Huanxiu, 2023. "Does air pollution induce international migration? New evidence from Chinese residents," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Martin Guzi & Štěpán Mikula, 2022. "Reforms that keep you at home: The effects of economic transition on migration," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 289-310, April.
    20. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2019:v:11:i:3:p:234-258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alupului Ciprian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csjesro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.