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Effects of a cash transfer programme on origin–destination migration flows

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  • Gabriel Lyrio de Oliveira
  • André Luis Squarize Chagas

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the effects of Bolsa Familia programme (BFP) on migration flows among municipalities from 2008 to 2010. BFP is a Brazilian cash transfer programme to low‐income families. We consider the aggregated origin–destination flows coming from a spatial dependent discrete choice model, and focus on interest variables related to the distribution of resources and supervision of the programme. We discuss possible lying mechanisms relating the interest variables and individual migration decisions. Each mechanism differs according to the individual status, the beneficiary of the programme or not, income profile, specific characteristics of its home municipality and potential destinations. Among our results, the control variables appear to agree with the main findings of migration literature. Moreover, the programme management was revealed relevant to the current and potential beneficiary locational choices, especially regarding the distribution of resources. En este artículo se estiman los efectos del programa Bolsa Familia sobre los flujos migratorios entre municipios desde 2008 a 2010. Bolsa Familia es un programa brasileño de transferencia de dinero en efectivo a familias de bajos ingresos. El estudio tiene en cuenta los flujos agregados origen‐destino procedentes de un modelo de elección discreta con dependencia espacial, y se centra en las variables de interés relacionadas con la distribución de los recursos y la supervisión del programa. Se discuten los posibles mecanismos que relacionan las variables de interés y las decisiones individuales de migración. Cada mecanismo difiere según la situación individual, si es beneficiario del programa o no, el perfil de ingresos, las características específicas del municipio de origen y los destinos potenciales. Entre los resultados, las variables de control parecen coincidir con los principales hallazgos de la bibliografía sobre migración. Además, se descubrió que la gestión del programa es relevante para las opciones de ubicación de los beneficiarios actuales y potenciales, especialmente en lo que respecta a la distribución de los recursos. 本稿では、ボルサ・ファミリア・プログラム(Bolsa Familia programme:BFP)が2008年から2010年までの地方自治体間の移住フローに及ぼす影響を推定した。空間依存性を考慮した離散選択モデルから得られた、出発地‐目的地の集約されたフローを検討し、資源の配分とプログラムの管理に関連する利益変数に焦点を当てる。利益の変数と個々の移住決定に関連するメカニズムを考察する。メカニズムは、個人の状況、プログラムの受給者か否か、所得プロファイル、自治体の特性、候補となる目的地によって異なる。結果の中でも、対照変数は、移住に関する研究の主な所見と一致するようである。さらに、プログラムの管理は、特に資源の分配に関して、現在および潜在的な受給者の場所の選択に関連していることが明らかになった。

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Lyrio de Oliveira & André Luis Squarize Chagas, 2020. "Effects of a cash transfer programme on origin–destination migration flows," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 83-104, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:83-104
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12161
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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