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Passenger Waiting Strategies for Overlapping Bus Routes

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe H. J. Marguier

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts)

  • Avishai Ceder

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts)

Abstract

Transit passengers in many urban areas must deal with overlapping bus routes with some routes sharing common stops. Such a passenger can decide either to board an arriving bus or wait for a faster bus---one which will have a shorter in-vehicle travel time. The purpose of this paper is to clarify this route-choice problem using mathematical formulations of passenger waiting times. First an analysis of previous research is carried out based on a field-verified formulation between the variance and the mean of the bus headway and on two headway distribution families. Second, probabilistic mathematical formulations are developed, and an interpretation of the problem is presented. In this second part, overlapping routes are categorized as slow or fast routes, and the proportion of passengers selecting each type of route is derived. The results concerning the route-choice strategies show that an optimal strategy might be to disregard an arriving slow bus. In this case the passenger should wait for a fast bus while disregarding slow buses arriving in the meantime. The results concerning the two route categories show that the intuitive rule in which passengers board the routes in proportion to their frequencies is not a good approximation in all cases, and it can be revised in accordance with this analysis. In addition, this research constructs a framework to consider further aspects of passenger behavior at urban bus stops.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe H. J. Marguier & Avishai Ceder, 1984. "Passenger Waiting Strategies for Overlapping Bus Routes," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 207-230, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:18:y:1984:i:3:p:207-230
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.18.3.207
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guido Gentile & Sang Nguyen & Stefano Pallottino, 2005. "Route Choice on Transit Networks with Online Information at Stops," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 289-297, August.
    2. Nassir, Neema & Hickman, Mark & Ma, Zhen-Liang, 2019. "A strategy-based recursive path choice model for public transit smart card data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 528-548.
    3. Padma Seetharaman, 2017. "Modelling risk aversion using a disaggregate stochastic process model in congested transit networks," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 549-569, October.
    4. Andres, Matthias & Nair, Rahul, 2017. "A predictive-control framework to address bus bunching," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 123-148.
    5. Carey, Malachy & Kwiecinski, Andrzej, 1995. "Properties of expected costs and performance measures in stochastic models of scheduled transport," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 182-199, May.
    6. Pilachowski, Joshua Michael, 2009. "An Approach to Reducing Bus Bunching," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6zc5j8xg, University of California Transportation Center.
    7. Wenliang Zhou & Wenzhuang Fan & Xiaorong You & Lianbo Deng, 2019. "Demand-Oriented Train Timetabling Integrated with Passenger Train-Booking Decisions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-34, September.
    8. Mohammad Reza Amin-Naseri & Vahid Baradaran, 2015. "Accurate Estimation of Average Waiting Time in Public Transportation Systems," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(2), pages 213-222, May.
    9. Liu, Tao & Ceder, Avishai (Avi), 2018. "Integrated public transport timetable synchronization and vehicle scheduling with demand assignment: A bi-objective bi-level model using deficit function approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 935-955.
    10. Ichoua, Soumia & Gendreau, Michel & Potvin, Jean-Yves, 2003. "Vehicle dispatching with time-dependent travel times," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 379-396, January.
    11. Belgacem Bouzaïene-Ayari & Michel Gendreau & Sang Nguyen, 2001. "Modeling Bus Stops in Transit Networks: A Survey and New Formulations," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 304-321, August.
    12. Barabino, Benedetto & Di Francesco, Massimo & Mozzoni, Sara, 2015. "Rethinking bus punctuality by integrating Automatic Vehicle Location data and passenger patterns," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 84-95.
    13. Mark D. Hickman, 2001. "An Analytic Stochastic Model for the Transit Vehicle Holding Problem," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 215-237, August.
    14. Larsen, Odd I. & Sunde, yvind, 2008. "Waiting time and the role and value of information in scheduled transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 41-52, January.
    15. Avishai Ceder, 2006. "Planning and Evaluation of Passenger Ferry Service in Hong Kong," Transportation, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 133-152, March.
    16. Ansari Esfeh, Mohammad & Saidi, Saeid & Wirasinghe, S.C. & Kattan, Lina, 2022. "Waiting time and headway modeling considering unreliability in transit service," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 219-233.
    17. Li, Qianfei & (Will) Chen, Peng & (Marco) Nie, Yu, 2015. "Finding optimal hyperpaths in large transit networks with realistic headway distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(1), pages 98-108.

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