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Analyzing Bioterror Response Logistics: The Case of Anthrax

Author

Listed:
  • David L. Craft

    (Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02114)

  • Lawrence M. Wein

    (Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94306)

  • Alexander H. Wilkins

    (Scientific Computing and Computational Mathematics, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94306)

Abstract

To aid in understanding how best to respond to a bioterror anthrax attack, we analyze a system of differential equations that includes an atmospheric release model, a spatial array of biosensors, a dose-response model, a disease progression model, and a set of spatially distributed tandem queues for distributing antibiotics and providing hospital care. We derive approximate closed-form expressions for the number of deaths as a function of key parameters and management levers, including the size of the attack, the time at which the attack is detected via symptomatic patients, the number of days to distribute antibiotics, the efficacy (both for treatment and prevention) of antibiotics, the prophylactic antibiotic distribution strategy, the prioritization of the antibiotics queue, and the detection limit, deployment density, and delay time of biosensors.

Suggested Citation

  • David L. Craft & Lawrence M. Wein & Alexander H. Wilkins, 2005. "Analyzing Bioterror Response Logistics: The Case of Anthrax," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 679-694, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:51:y:2005:i:5:p:679-694
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0348
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nathaniel Hupert & Alvin I. Mushlin & Mark A. Callahan, 2002. "Modeling the Public Health Response to Bioterrorism: Using Discrete Event Simulation to Design Antibiotic Distribution Centers," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 22(1_suppl), pages 17-25, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Yuxuan & Liu, Nan, 2015. "Methodology of emergency medical logistics for public health emergencies," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 178-200.
    2. Ubaid Illahi & Mohammad Shafi Mir, 2021. "Maintaining efficient logistics and supply chain management operations during and after coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic: learning from the past experiences," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11157-11178, August.
    3. Damon J A Toth & Adi V Gundlapalli & Wiley A Schell & Kenneth Bulmahn & Thomas E Walton & Christopher W Woods & Catherine Coghill & Frank Gallegos & Matthew H Samore & Frederick R Adler, 2013. "Quantitative Models of the Dose-Response and Time Course of Inhalational Anthrax in Humans," PLOS Pathogens, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Özge Karanfil & Yaman Barlas, 2008. "A Dynamic Simulator for the Management of Disorders of the Body Water Homeostasis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(6), pages 1474-1492, December.
    5. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "Literature review: The vaccine supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 174-192.
    6. Lindelauf, R. & Borm, P.E.M. & Hamers, H.J.M., 2010. "One-Mode Projection Analysis and Design of Covert Affiliation Networks," Other publications TiSEM 22cf26dc-7fbc-431d-967f-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Biswas, Debajyoti & Alfandari, Laurent, 2022. "Designing an optimal sequence of non‐pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1372-1391.
    8. Margaret L. Brandeau, 2019. "OR Forum—Public Health Preparedness: Answering (Largely Unanswerable) Questions with Operations Research—The 2016–2017 Philip McCord Morse Lecture," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 700-710, May.
    9. David Simchi-Levi & Nikolaos Trichakis & Peter Yun Zhang, 2019. "Designing Response Supply Chain Against Bioattacks," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 1246-1268, September.
    10. S. S. Isukapalli & P. J. Lioy & P. G. Georgopoulos, 2008. "Mechanistic Modeling of Emergency Events: Assessing the Impact of Hypothetical Releases of Anthrax," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 723-740, June.
    11. Pan, Yuqing & Cheng, T.C.E. & He, Yuxuan & Ng, Chi To & Sethi, Suresh P., 2022. "Foresighted medical resources allocation during an epidemic outbreak," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    12. Büyüktahtakın, İ. Esra & des-Bordes, Emmanuel & Kıbış, Eyyüb Y., 2018. "A new epidemics–logistics model: Insights into controlling the Ebola virus disease in West Africa," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(3), pages 1046-1063.
    13. P. Daniel Wright & Matthew J. Liberatore & Robert L. Nydick, 2006. "A Survey of Operations Research Models and Applications in Homeland Security," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 514-529, December.
    14. Alain, Guinet & Angel, Ruiz, 2016. "Modeling the logistics response to a bioterrorist anthrax attackAuthor-Name: Wanying, Chen," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 458-471.
    15. Gary E. Bolton & Elena Katok, 2018. "Cry Wolf or Equivocate? Credible Forecast Guidance in a Cost-Loss Game," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1440-1457, March.
    16. Michael A. Hamilton & Tao Hong & Elizabeth Casman & Patrick L. Gurian, 2015. "Risk‐Based Decision Making for Reoccupation of Contaminated Areas Following a Wide‐Area Anthrax Release," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1348-1363, July.

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    Keywords

    bioterrorism; queueing;

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