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Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings

Author

Listed:
  • William J. Infosino

    (AT&T Bell Laboratories)

Abstract

This paper compares consumer likelihood of purchase ratings for a proposed new product to their actual purchase behavior after the product was introduced. The ratings were obtained from a mail survey a few weeks before the product was introduced. The analysis leads to a model for forecasting new product sales. The model is supported by both empirical evidence and a reasonable theoretical foundation. In addition to calibrating the relationship between questionnaire ratings and actual purchases, the empirical evidence demonstrates the significant effect of alternative promotion/distribution vehicles on new product sales. The model uses questionnaire data to extend the results of a limited market trial to alternative target markets, product specifications, and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • William J. Infosino, 1986. "Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 372-384.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:5:y:1986:i:4:p:372-384
    as

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.5.4.372
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard T. Carson, 2011. "Contingent Valuation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2489.
    2. Runyu Chen & Wei Xu, 2017. "The determinants of online customer ratings: a combined domain ontology and topic text analytics approach," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 31-50, March.
    3. Etienne Bressoud, 2007. "Identification des variables produits et attitudinales explicatives des ventes : proposition d'un cadre conceptuel appliqué aux jeux vidéo," Post-Print halshs-00305749, HAL.
    4. He, Jiaxun & Wang, Cheng Lu, 2015. "Cultural identity and consumer ethnocentrism impacts on preference and purchase of domestic versus import brands: An empirical study in China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1225-1233.
    5. Armstrong, J. Scott & Morwitz, Vicki G. & Kumar, V., 2000. "Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?," MPRA Paper 81689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Richard Carson & Theodore Groves, 2007. "Incentive and informational properties of preference questions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(1), pages 181-210, May.
    7. B. Douglas Bernheim & Daniel Bjorkegren & Jeffrey Naecker & Antonio Rangel, 2013. "Non-Choice Evaluations Predict Behavioral Responses to Changes in Economic Conditions," NBER Working Papers 19269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Daniel McFadden & Albert Bemmaor & Francis Caro & Jeff Dominitz & Byung-Hill Jun & Arthur Lewbel & Rosa Matzkin & Francesca Molinari & Norbert Schwarz & Robert Willis & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 183-196, December.
    9. Armstrong, J. Scott & Morwitz, Vicki G. & Kumar, V., 2000. "Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 383-397.
    10. Martin R. Young & Wayne S. DeSarbo & Vicki G. Morwitz, 1998. "The Stochastic Modeling of Purchase Intentions and Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(2), pages 188-202, February.
    11. repec:eee:ijrema:v:28:y:2011:i:2:p:134-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:eee:ijrema:v:27:y:2010:i:4:p:356-366 is not listed on IDEAS

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