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Accounting for Primary and Secondary Demand Effects with Aggregate Data

Author

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  • Harikesh Nair

    () (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1101 East 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637)

  • Jean-Pierre Dubé

    () (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1101 East 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637)

  • Pradeep Chintagunta

    () (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1101 East 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637)

Abstract

Discrete choice models of aggregate demand, such as the random coefficients logit, can handle large differentiated products categories parsimoniously while still providing flexible substitution patterns. However, the discrete choice assumption may not be appropriate for many categories in which we expect consumers may purchase more than one unit of the selected item. We derive the aggregate demand system corresponding to a discrete/continuous household-level model of demand. We also propose a method-of-simulated-moments procedure that provides consistent estimates of the structural parameters when only aggregate data are available. The procedure also enables the researcher to control both for the potential endogeneity of marketing variables as well as potential heterogeneity in consumer tastes. Using our aggregate estimates, we can measure the decomposition of price elasticities into incidence, brand choice, and purchase quantity components. We also propose several empirical tests to assess the validity of the discrete/continuous demand system versus that of the logit model. In several simulation experiments, we demonstrate the robustness of this model across datasets in which quantity choices may or may not be important. Our empirical calibration to store-level data in the refrigerated orange juice category indicates a considerable improvement in fit of the observed aggregate sales using the discrete/continuous model.

Suggested Citation

  • Harikesh Nair & Jean-Pierre Dubé & Pradeep Chintagunta, 2005. "Accounting for Primary and Secondary Demand Effects with Aggregate Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 444-460, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:24:y:2005:i:3:p:444-460
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1040.0101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Liang Guo, 2006. "—Removing the Boundary Between Structural and Reduced-Form Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 629-632, 11-12.
    2. Ching-I Huang, 2008. "Estimating demand for cellular phone service under nonlinear pricing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 371-413, December.
    3. Sridhar Narayanan & Pradeep Chintagunta & Eugenio Miravete, 2007. "The role of self selection, usage uncertainty and learning in the demand for local telephone service," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, March.
    4. Nitin Mehta, 2007. "Investigating Consumers' Purchase Incidence and Brand Choice Decisions Across Multiple Product Categories: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 196-217, 03-04.
    5. Richards, Timothy J. & Hamilton, Stephen F. & Patterson, Paul M., 2010. "Spatial Competition and Private Labels," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(2), August.
    6. Richards, Timothy J. & Acharya, Ram N. & Molina, Ignacio, 2009. "Retail and Wholesale Market Power in Organic Foods," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49329, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. repec:eee:ijrema:v:26:y:2009:i:3:p:197-206 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pradeep K. Chintagunta & Harikesh S. Nair, 2011. "Structural Workshop Paper --Discrete-Choice Models of Consumer Demand in Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(6), pages 977-996, November.
    9. Jorge Silva-Risso & Irina Ionova, 2008. "—A Nested Logit Model of Product and Transaction-Type Choice for Planning Automakers' Pricing and Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 545-566, 07-08.
    10. Joonhwi Joo & Ali Hortacsu, 2016. "Semiparametric estimation of CES demand system with observed and unobserved product characteristics," 2016 Meeting Papers 36, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. repec:eee:jouret:v:88:y:2012:i:2:p:206-225 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nitin Mehta & Xinlei (Jack) Chen & Om Narasimhan, 2010. "Examining Demand Elasticities in Hanemann's Framework: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 422-437, 05-06.
    13. Amit Gandhi Gandhi & Zhentong Lu & Xiaoxia Shi, 2013. "Estimating demand for differentiated products with error in market shares," CeMMAP working papers CWP03/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Ramanathan, Usha & Muyldermans, Luc, 2010. "Identifying demand factors for promotional planning and forecasting: A case of a soft drink company in the UK," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 538-545, December.
    15. Anindya Ghose & Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis & Beibei Li, 2012. "Designing Ranking Systems for Hotels on Travel Search Engines by Mining User-Generated and Crowdsourced Content," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(3), pages 493-520, May.
    16. Anja Lambrecht & Katja Seim & Bernd Skiera, 2007. "Does Uncertainty Matter? Consumer Behavior Under Three-Part Tariffs," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(5), pages 698-710, 09-10.
    17. Arnade, Carlos Anthony & Gopinath, Munisamy & Pick, Daniel H., 2011. "How Much Do Consumers Benefit from New Brand Introductions? The Case of Potato Chips," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), April.
    18. Ishida, Takashi & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2010. "The effects of fishery harbor-based brands on the brand equity of shore fish: An empirical study of branded mackerel in Japan," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 488-495, October.
    19. Raphael Thomadsen, 2007. "Product Positioning and Competition: The Role of Location in the Fast Food Industry," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(6), pages 792-804, 11-12.
    20. Pinar Karaca-Mandic, 2011. "Role of complementarities in technology adoption: The case of DVD players," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-210, June.
    21. Jack (Xinlei) Chen & Om Narasimhan & George John & Tirtha Dhar, 2010. "An Empirical Investigation of Private Label Supply by National Label Producers," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 738-755, 07-08.

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