IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Case Article—Canyon Bicycles: Judgmental Demand Forecasting in Direct Sales


  • Christoph Diermann

    () (WHU—Otto Beisheim School of Management, 56179 Vallendar, Germany)

  • Arnd Huchzermeier

    () (WHU—Otto Beisheim School of Management, 56179 Vallendar, Germany)


We present a comprehensive introduction to judgmental demand forecasting along with a model that allows for effectively debiasing team forecasts and estimating demand distributions. This case is recommended for classes in operations management, marketing, or retail management; two companion papers are ideal for advanced courses (e.g., master’s or doctorate programs). We confront students with a demand forecasting problem encountered by Canyon Bicycles, the German premium bicycle manufacturer and online retailer. We present both a model and a process for deriving an accurate judgmental demand forecast. In particular, we demonstrate how one can (i) identify the best team composition, (ii) prepare for and run the forecasting meeting, (iii) debias team forecasts, (iv) estimate demand distributions, (v) deal with heterogeneous product collections, and (vi) judge the quality of forecasted demand distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Diermann & Arnd Huchzermeier, 2017. "Case Article—Canyon Bicycles: Judgmental Demand Forecasting in Direct Sales," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 58-62, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:orited:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:58-62

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:orited:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:58-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.