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What It Takes to Win on the PGA TOUR (If Your Name Is “Tiger” or If It Isn't)

Author

Listed:
  • Robert A. Connolly

    (Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599)

  • Richard J. Rendleman

    (Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599; and Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire 03755)

Abstract

In this study, we show what it takes to win on the PGA TOUR for Tiger Woods and other professional golfers as a function of individual player skill, random variation in scoring, strength of field, and depth of field. When Woods wins, he wins by scoring an average of 0.71 strokes per round less than other winning players. This difference reflects (1) that Woods may play better than other winning players when he wins and (2) that Woods tends to play in tournaments with the strongest fields, which require lower scores to win. To make this assessment, we develop a novel simulation-based estimate of relative tournament difficulty—the mean score per round that it takes to win a PGA TOUR event. We also explore the extent to which players could have won tournaments on the PGA TOUR by playing their normal game, with no favorable random variation in scoring. We estimate that Woods is the only player who could have won events on the PGA TOUR over the 2003–2009 seasons by simply playing his normal game.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert A. Connolly & Richard J. Rendleman, 2012. "What It Takes to Win on the PGA TOUR (If Your Name Is “Tiger” or If It Isn't)," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 42(6), pages 554-576, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:42:y:2012:i:6:p:554-576
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.1110.0615
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jennifer Brown, 2011. "Quitters Never Win: The (Adverse) Incentive Effects of Competing with Superstars," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(5), pages 982-1013.
    2. John D. Storey, 2002. "A direct approach to false discovery rates," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(3), pages 479-498, August.
    3. Connolly, Robert A. & Rendleman, Richard J., 2008. "Skill, Luck, and Streaky Play on the PGA Tour," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 74-88, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Broadie, 2012. "Assessing Golfer Performance on the PGA TOUR," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 146-165, April.
    2. Connolly Robert & Rendleman Richard J., 2012. "Tournament Selection Efficiency: An Analysis of the PGA TOUR's FedExCup," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-33, November.

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