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Industrialización hacia afuera, balanza de pagos y restricción externa: un análisis para México, 1995-2020

Author

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  • Heri Oscar Landa Díaz

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México)

  • Veronica Cerezo García

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México)

Abstract

El objetivo de esta investigación es examinar el impacto de las características de los patrones de especialización sobre la dinámica industrial, mediante una versión fuerte del modelo de restricción externa de Thirlwall, en 13 subsectores manufactureros de México durante el periodo 1995-2020. Los resultados principales muestran que: i) el crecimiento del sector manufacturero se encuentra restringido por el equilibrio de la cuenta corriente; ii) la elasticidad ingreso de las exportaciones aumenta en la medida que crece la productividad y la acumulación de capital; iii) la elasticidad ingreso de las importaciones es mayor en la medida que aumenta la participación del valor agregado extranjero en la producción de exportación. Con esta evidencia, es posible concluir que la profundización del modelo de industrialización hacia fuera ha limitado las ganancias asociadas al comercio y ralentizado el crecimiento económico. En este contexto, es fundamental operar una política industrial que fortalezca las cadenas de suministro interna y la posición dentro de las cadenas globales de valor. La contribución del trabajo reside en analizar a nivel de subsector las implicaciones de la composición del comercio sobre la expansión económica.

Suggested Citation

  • Heri Oscar Landa Díaz & Veronica Cerezo García, 2024. "Industrialización hacia afuera, balanza de pagos y restricción externa: un análisis para México, 1995-2020," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 19(3), pages 1-17, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:19:y:2024:i:3:a:6
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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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