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Prima para la cobertura por exceso de contagios de COVID-19

Author

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  • Guillermo Sierra Juárez

    (Universidad de Guadalajara, México)

Abstract

Con la aparición del COVID-19 muchos de los sectores de la economía resultaron afectados negativamente, particularmente el de seguros. Con el apoyo de los gobiernos o de las reaseguradoras mediante el pago de una prima las compañías aseguradoras podrían recibir un recurso contingente ante el exceso de contagios provocados por la pandemia. El presente trabajo calcula la prima para cubrir el exceso de población afectada con un modelo de opciones financieras con un proceso de difusión sin y con saltos de Poisson y el modelo epidemiológico Susceptibles-Infectados-Recuperados (SIR), esta propuesta no cuenta con muchos precedentes. El sistema obtenido se aproxima con el método de simulación Monte Carlo. Al final se presentan los resultados donde hay diferencias importantes en las primas de las opciones al incluir saltos de Poisson. Por último, dentro de las principales conclusiones se destaca que el valor de la prima depende de la trayectoria de comportamiento de los contagios y del valor de ejercicio del contagio (K ). El trabajo tiene limitaciones al aplicarse a casos muy particulares, pero que podrían extenderse a casos más reales en investigaciones futuras.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Sierra Juárez, 2023. "Prima para la cobertura por exceso de contagios de COVID-19," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(2), pages 1-17, Abril - J.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:18:y:2023:i:2:p:7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Monte Carlo; Reaseguros; Opciones financieras; Epidemiología; procesos de Poisson;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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