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Informality, Gender Employment Gap, and COVID-19 in Mexico: Identifying Persistence and Dynamic Structural Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge O. Moreno

    (Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, México, México)

  • Cecilia Y. Cuellar

    (Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, México, México)

Abstract

El objetivo es analizar el impacto de la pandemia del COVID-19 en la dinámica del mercado laboral mexicano (empleo formal-informal) por género. Se construyen series de tiempo microfundamentales consistentes desde 1987:Q1 hasta 2019:Q4 utilizando las encuestas de empleo urbanas mexicanas, y se estima un modelo VAR que vincula la producción agregada y cada segmento del mercado. Nuestros resultados sugieren que hay efectos adversos significativos en el empleo formal como resultado de la pandemia del COVID-19, con una larga recuperación del empleo para las mujeres y los hombres. El sector informal, en ambos sexos, presenta una respuesta pronosticada menor al choque de producción inicial, pero pérdidas sustanciales de empleo observadas, potencialmente vinculadas a cambios estructurales en el mercado. En la crisis de COVID-19, el sector informal no es un sustituto de las pérdidas de empleo formal. La complejidad de esta crisis sugiere la elaboración de políticas que mejoren la facilidad del mercado para potenciar la recuperación del empleo formal al tiempo que se promueve la igualdad de género. Nuestra principal contribución es estimar las diversas pérdidas de empleo por segmentos y un cambio estructural crítico en la dinámica del mercado laboral resultante de la pandemia de COVID-19, centrando el análisis en el empleo urbano.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge O. Moreno & Cecilia Y. Cuellar, 2021. "Informality, Gender Employment Gap, and COVID-19 in Mexico: Identifying Persistence and Dynamic Structural Effects," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-25, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:16:y:2021:i:3:a:9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. AKKEMIK, K. Ali, 2007. "The Response Of Employment To Gdp Growth In Turkey: An Econometric Estimation," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    2. Jaime J. Escobedo González & Jorge O. Moreno Treviño, 2020. "Transición y persistencia en el ciclo formal-informal en México: El papel del capital humano," Revista de Economía Laboral - Spanish Journal of Labour Economics, Asociación Española de Economía Laboral - AEET, vol. 17, pages 1-45.
    3. Alcaraz Carlo, 2009. "Informal and Formal Labour Flexibility in Mexico," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Maloney, William F., 2004. "Informality Revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1159-1178, July.
    5. Islas-Camargo, Alejandro & Cortez, Willy W., 2011. "Revisiting Okun's law for Mexico: an analysis of the permanent and transitory components of unemployment and output," MPRA Paper 30026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Florencia Pedroni, 2023. "Firm informality during the COVID-19 crisis in Argentina: perception of commercial entrepreneurs and public accountants," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 39(166), pages 24-36.
    2. Cuellar, Cecilia Y. & Moreno, Jorge O., 2022. "Employment, wages, and the gender gap in Mexico: Evidence of three decades of the urban labor market," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(2).
    3. Oliver Cruz-Milan & Sergio Lagunas-Puls, 2021. "Effects of COVID-19 on Variations of Taxpayers in Tourism-Reliant Regions: The Case of the Mexican Caribbean," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-23, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J82 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Labor Force Composition

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