A New Framework for Measuring the Credit Risk of a Portfolio: The "ExVaR" Model
This paper proposes a new framework for the quantitative evaluation of the credit risk of a portfolio by extending the concept of value at risk. In practice, the risk evaluation period is set individually for each transaction in the portfolio and a simulation is carried out on the movements of default probabilities, interest rates, and collateral asset prices as well as on the realization of defaults of counter parties. The result fixes the cash flow along the simulated path and leads to the present value of the total cash flows. By repeating this procedure many times, we obtain the probability distribution of the present value, by which we can evaluate the price and the risk of the portfolio. This framework enables us comprehensively and objectively to measure the risk taking into account the diversification/concentration effect, the collateral effect, and the correlation between credit risk factors and market risk factors. After presenting the methodology, the paper calculates the risk of hypothetical test portfolios. They are used to discuss the applicability of the framework to practical uses.
Volume (Year): 15 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2-1-1 Nihonbashi, Hongoku-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103|
Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Duffee, Gregory R., 1996.
"On measuring credit risks of derivative instruments,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 805-833, June.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 1994. "On measuring credit risks of derivative instruments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Wu, Chunchi & Yu, Chih-Hsien, 1996. "Risk aversion and the yield of corporate debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 267-281, March.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
- Johnsen, Thomajean & Melicher, Ronald W., 1994. "Predicting corporate bankruptcy and financial distress: Information value added by multinomial logit models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 269-286, October.
- Steven R. Grenadier & Brian J. Hall, 1995. "Risk-Based Capital Standards and the Riskiness of Bank Portfolios: Credit and Factor Risks," NBER Working Papers 5178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven R. Renadier & Brian J. Hall, 1995. "Risk-Based Capital Standards and the Riskiness of Bank Portfolios: Credit and Factor Risks," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1718, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:15:y:1997:i:2:p:27-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.