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The Relationship between Volatility and Expected Returns: Some Evidence for Australia

  • Ali F. Darrat

    (College of Business, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, U.S.A.)

  • Bin Li

    (Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Australia)

  • Omar Benkato

    (Miller College of Business, Ball State University, U.S.A.)

Registered author(s):

    We explore the intertemporal relation between the conditional mean and the conditional variance of industry portfolio returns and the Fama-French 25 size/book-to-market portfolio returns using data from Australia. We estimate the portfolio conditional covariance with the market and test whether it can predict the time-variation in the portfolio expected returns. We find strong and consistent evidence of a positive risk aversion relation, implying that the market returns do carry a positive risk premium in the Australian market. Our results suggest that the value factor is relevant for determining the variation of asset returns on both the industry portfolios and the size/book-to-market portfolios.

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    Article provided by College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan in its journal International Journal of Business and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 10 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (April)
    Pages: 27-43

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    Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:10:y:2011:i:1:p:27-43
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    1. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
    3. Chan, K. C. & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, ReneM., 1992. "Global financial markets and the risk premium on U.S. equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 137-167, October.
    4. Chou, Ray Yeutien, 1988. "Volatility Persistence and Stock Valuations: Some Empirical Evidence Using Garch," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-94, October-D.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
    6. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
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    13. Hentschel, Ludger & Campbell, John, 1992. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3220232, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    14. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    15. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    16. Ferson, Wayne E. & Foerster, Stephen R., 1994. "Finite sample properties of the generalized method of moments in tests of conditional asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 29-55, August.
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    18. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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