IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/igg/jswis0/v20y2024i1p1-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Web Semantic Analysis of Investor Sentiment, Short Trading, and Stock Market Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Guobin Fang

    (Anhui University of Finance and Economics, China)

  • Xuehua Zhou

    (Anhui University of Finance and Economics, China)

Abstract

This paper develops a novel investor sentiment index using a MF-DFM based on ten years' worth of daily trading data of the CSI 300 index. By employing a TVP-SV-VAR model, it examines the interplay between investor sentiment, short trading, and stock market volatility. Furthermore, the study explores time-varying nonlinear effects under different market conditions. The findings reveal that investor sentiment heightens market volatility, while an increase in short trading volume tends to reduce it. The impact of investor sentiment on short trading volume is multifaceted and varies depending on the scenario. Further analysis suggests that investor sentiment and stock market volatility can reinforce each other in bull markets. In contrast, bear markets see investors strategically using securities lending for short trading and risk hedging, which indicates a substitution effect between the stock market and the securities lending market. This study has implications for promoting the healthy development of financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Guobin Fang & Xuehua Zhou, 2024. "Web Semantic Analysis of Investor Sentiment, Short Trading, and Stock Market Volatility," International Journal on Semantic Web and Information Systems (IJSWIS), IGI Global, vol. 20(1), pages 1-35, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:igg:jswis0:v:20:y:2024:i:1:p:1-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://services.igi-global.com/resolvedoi/resolve.aspx?doi=10.4018/IJSWIS.353903
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Xiang & Yuan, Xianghui & Jin, Liwei & Liu, Shuo & Liu, Miao, 2024. "The effect of margin-trading and short-selling mechanism on left-tail risk: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Gui, Pingshu & Zhu, Yifeng, 2021. "Margin trading and stock idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 484-496.
    3. Zhu, Lin & Chen, Qinyuan & Yang, Shengzhi & Yi, Zhihong, 2021. "The role of analysts in negative information production and disclosure: Evidence from short selling deregulation in an emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 391-406.
    4. Ye, Qing & Zhou, Shengjie & Zhang, Jie, 2020. "Short-selling, margin-trading, and stock liquidity: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    6. Massimo Massa & Bohui Zhang & Hong Zhang, 2015. "The Invisible Hand of Short Selling: Does Short Selling Discipline Earnings Management?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(6), pages 1701-1736.
    7. Algaba, Andres & Borms, Samuel & Boudt, Kris & Verbeken, Brecht, 2023. "Daily news sentiment and monthly surveys: A mixed-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 266-278.
    8. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    9. Yunqi Fan & Fangzhao Zhou & Yunbi An & Jun Yang, 2021. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 310-339, October.
    10. Kim, Jikyung (Jeanne) & Dong, Hang & Choi, Jeonghye & Chang, Sue Ryung, 2022. "Sentiment change and negative herding: Evidence from microblogging and news," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 364-376.
    11. Bige Kahraman & Heather E. Tookes, 2017. "Trader Leverage and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1567-1610, August.
    12. Chen, Xinxin & Guo, Yanhong & Song, Yingying, 2024. "Multiple time scales investor sentiment impact the stock market index fluctuation: From margin trading business perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fan, Yi & Gao, Yang, 2024. "Short selling, informational efficiency, and extreme stock price adjustment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1009-1028.
    2. Gebka, Bartosz, 2025. "Explaining the causality between trading volume and stock returns: What drives its cross-quantile patterns?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Hui Hong & Shitong Wu & Cheng Zhang, 2025. "Margin buying activity and stock market trading in China: Is there a connection?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1564-1582, April.
    4. Hou, Deshuai & Wang, Qi & Sun, Qiong & Chen, Ying, 2025. "Does short selling affect corporate green transformation? —Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Zhou, Shengjie & Ye, Qing, 2023. "Margin trading and spillover effects: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Bouteska, Ahmed & Kabir Hassan, M. & Gider, Zeynullah & Bataineh, Hassan, 2024. "The role of investor sentiment and market belief in forecasting V-shaped disposition effect: Evidence from a Bayesian learning process with DSSW model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Bae, Juhee, 2024. "Factor-augmented forecasting in big data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1660-1688.
    8. Liu, Zhenhua & Chen, Shumin & Zhong, Hongyu & Ding, Zhihua, 2024. "Coal price shocks, investor sentiment, and stock market returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Ye, Qing & Zhou, Shengjie & Zhang, Jie, 2020. "Short-selling, margin-trading, and stock liquidity: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Wang, Shujing & Yan, Hongjun & Zhong, Ninghua & Tang, Yizhou, 2024. "Indirect effects of trading restrictions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Chen, Xinxin & Guo, Yanhong & Song, Yingying, 2024. "Multiple time scales investor sentiment impact the stock market index fluctuation: From margin trading business perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    12. Ahmed Bouteska & Taimur Sharif & Mohammad Zoynul Abedin, 2024. "Does investor sentiment create value for asset pricing? An empirical investigation of the KOSPI‐listed firms," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3487-3509, July.
    13. Yin, Libo & Xin, Yu, 2024. "China's cognitive bias premium: An exploration of innovation information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    14. ?ikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Impacts of Stock Indices, Oil, and Twitter Sentiment on Major Cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 First Wave," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 133-146.
    15. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
    16. Wang, Yubao & Huang, Xiaozhou & Huang, Zhendong, 2024. "Energy-related uncertainty and Chinese stock market returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    17. Su, Yuandong & Lu, Xinjie & Zeng, Qing & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Good air quality and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Chue, Timothy K. & Gul, Ferdinand A. & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2019. "Aggregate investor sentiment and stock return synchronicity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    19. Hou, Yang & Meng, Jiayin, 2018. "The momentum effect in the Chinese market and its relationship with the simultaneous and the lagged investor sentiment," MPRA Paper 94838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Gloria González‐Rivera & C. Vladimir Rodríguez‐Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 926-942, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:igg:jswis0:v:20:y:2024:i:1:p:1-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journal Editor (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.igi-global.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.