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Vectores autoregresivos e identificación de shocks de política monetaria en Argentina

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  • Gastón Ezequiel Utrera

    (Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas (Córdoba, Argentina))

Abstract

En este trabajo se utilizan vectores autoregresivos para estimar el efecto macroeconómico de la política monetaria en Argentina durante las décadas de 1980 y 1990. Se presta especial atención a la dificultad para identificar shocks de política monetaria dados los sesgos producidos por omisión de variables y se sugiere una vía para solucionar este problema de identificación. Tests de causalidad de Granger, funciones impulso-respuesta, descomposiciones de varianzas y simulaciones de errores de pronóstico son concluyentes acerca de grandes diferencias estructurales entre ambas décadas. Sin embargo, en ambos casos surge evidencia acerca de posibles efectos contractivos de políticas monetarias expansivas. / In this paper we use Vector Autoregressions for the estimation of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Argentina during the 1980´s and 1990´s. Special attention is given to problems associated with the identification of monetary policy shocks due to potential omitted variables bias, for which we propose a way to address this issue. Granger causality tests, impulse-response functions, variance decompositions and simulated forecast errors show big structural differences between the 1980's and 1990's. Nevertheless, there is evidence in both periods about potential contractive effects of expansive monetary policies, in line with previous results obtained using error correction models.

Suggested Citation

  • Gastón Ezequiel Utrera, 2004. "Vectores autoregresivos e identificación de shocks de política monetaria en Argentina," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 42(2), pages 105-126, Diciembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ief:reveye:v:42:y:2004:i:2:p:105-126
    DOI: 10.55444/2451.7321.2004.v42.n2.3809
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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