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Forecasting long-term demand of largest Finnish sea ports

Author

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  • Lauri Lättilä
  • Olli-Pekka Hilmola

Abstract

Investments in large scale logistical infrastructure are significant and they require a long time and as such good forecasts play an important part. In this research, we combine advanced forecasting methods with system dynamics to study the development of Finnish sea ports. We use regression and ARIMA models in conjunction with a system dynamic Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the development of Finnish sea ports. Based on long-term data, industrial production was found to be the driving factor behind sea port demand development in Finland. GDP is generally regarded as the explanatory variable, but at least in Finland, industrial production drives the growth. Russian oil exports also explain transit traffic through Finland to Russia, and four scenarios were generated to estimate the development of Finnish sea ports.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauri Lättilä & Olli-Pekka Hilmola, 2012. "Forecasting long-term demand of largest Finnish sea ports," International Journal of Applied Management Science, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1), pages 52-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:injams:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:52-79
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Parola & Giovanni Satta & Theo Notteboom & Luca Persico, 2021. "Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(3), pages 444-494, September.

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