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Covid-19 epidemien i Vesteuropa: betydningen af befolkningstæthed, andel ældre og tillid for dødelighed og økonomisk aktivitet

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  • Albæk, Karsten

    (VIVE)

Abstract

Artiklen behandler emner, som er indgået i den offentlige debat om covid-19 epidemiens omfang i Danmark sammenholdt med Finland, Norge og Sverige, samt Sydeuropa. Det vises, at dødeligheden i Danmark ligger på ca. samme niveau som i Finland og Norge, når der er korrigeret for befolkningstæthed, mens Sverige har ca. 1200 flere døde per mio. indbyggere end Danmark. Det højere antal ældre i de sydeuropæiske lande kan kun i begrænset omfang forklare overdødeligheden i disse lande. Den altdominerende årsag til det høje antal dødsfald i Sydeuropa sammenholdt med Finland, Norge og Danmark er forskellen i omfanget af tillid i befolkningerne. Det opgøres, at Danmark har undgået ca. 5.000 covid-19 dødsfald sammenlignet med en situation, hvor tilliden er på niveau med de syd-europæiske lande. Endvidere viser artiklen, at jo mere epidemi, jo lavere økonomisk aktivitet: I Vesteuropa resulterede 1000 flere covid-19 dødsfald per mio. indbyggere i år 2020 i et fald på ca. fire procent af nationalproduktet. Det beregnes, at den høje grad af tillid i Danmark har resulteret i økonomisk gevinst på ca. 82 mia. kr. i undgået fald i nationalproduktet, sammenlignet med et tillidsniveau svarende til de sydeuropæiske lande. Artiklen opgør, at der har været en økonomisk gevinst i form af øget økonomisk aktivitet på ca. 16 mio. kr. for hvert undgået covid-19 dødsfald i Danmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Albæk, Karsten, 2021. "Covid-19 epidemien i Vesteuropa: betydningen af befolkningstæthed, andel ældre og tillid for dødelighed og økonomisk aktivitet," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2021(1), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:jdaecn:0005
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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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