IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/socmed/v263y2020ics0277953620305840.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The trouble with trust: Time-series analysis of social capital, income inequality, and COVID-19 deaths in 84 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Elgar, Frank J.
  • Stefaniak, Anna
  • Wohl, Michael J.A.

Abstract

Can social contextual factors explain international differences in the spread of COVID-19? It is widely assumed that social cohesion, public confidence in government sources of health information and general concern for the welfare of others support health advisories during a pandemic and save lives. We tested this assumption through a time-series analysis of cross-national differences in COVID-19 mortality during an early phase of the pandemic. Country data on income inequality and four dimensions of social capital (trust, group affiliations, civic responsibility and confidence in public institutions) were linked to data on COVID-19 deaths in 84 countries. Associations with deaths were examined using Poisson regression with population-averaged estimators. During a 30-day period after recording their tenth death, mortality was positively related to income inequality, trust and group affiliations and negatively related to social capital from civic engagement and confidence in state institutions. These associations held in bivariate and mutually controlled regression models with controls for population size, age and wealth. The results indicate that societies that are more economically unequal and lack capacity in some dimensions of social capital experienced more COVID-19 deaths. Social trust and belonging to groups were associated with more deaths, possibly due to behavioural contagion and incongruence with physical distancing policy. Some countries require a more robust public health response to contain the spread and impact of COVID-19 due to economic and social divisions within them.

Suggested Citation

  • Elgar, Frank J. & Stefaniak, Anna & Wohl, Michael J.A., 2020. "The trouble with trust: Time-series analysis of social capital, income inequality, and COVID-19 deaths in 84 countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:263:y:2020:i:c:s0277953620305840
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113365
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953620305840
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113365?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 1995. "What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 634-647, September.
    2. Luiz de Mello & Erwin R. Tiongson, 2006. "Income Inequality and Redistributive Government Spending," Public Finance Review, , vol. 34(3), pages 282-305, May.
    3. Pickett, Kate E. & Wilkinson, Richard G., 2015. "Income inequality and health: A causal review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 316-326.
    4. Amirhossein Takian & Mohammad Mehdi Kiani & Khatere Khanjankhani, 2020. "COVID-19 and the need to prioritize health equity and social determinants of health," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 65(5), pages 521-523, June.
    5. Paul Rutter & Oliver Mytton & Matthew Mak & Liam Donaldson, 2012. "Socio-economic disparities in mortality due to pandemic influenza in England," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 57(4), pages 745-750, August.
    6. Frederick Solt, 2020. "Measuring Income Inequality Across Countries and Over Time: The Standardized World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(3), pages 1183-1199, May.
    7. Ram, Rati, 2006. "Further examination of the cross-country association between income inequality and population health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 779-791, February.
    8. Agampodi, Thilini Chanchala & Agampodi, Suneth Buddhika & Glozier, Nicholas & Siribaddana, Sisira, 2015. "Measurement of social capital in relation to health in low and middle income countries (LMIC): A systematic review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 95-104.
    9. Villalonga-Olives, E. & Kawachi, I., 2017. "The dark side of social capital: A systematic review of the negative health effects of social capital," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 105-127.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. José Alves & Tomás Silva, 2021. "An Empirical Assessment of Monetary Policy Channels in Income and Wealth Disparities," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(3), pages 432-449, September.
    2. Isaac Kwesi Ofori & Toyo Amègnonna Marcel Dossou & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2023. "Towards the quest to reduce income inequality in Africa: is there a synergy between tourism development and governance?," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 429-449, February.
    3. Ofori, Isaac K. & Gbolonyo, Emmanuel & Dossou, Marcel A. T. & Nkrumah, Richard K., 2022. "Remittances and Income Inequality in Africa: Financial Development Thresholds for Economic Policy," MPRA Paper 113015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Andrew Jorgenson, 2015. "Inequality and the carbon intensity of human well-being," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(3), pages 277-282, September.
    5. Carolyn Chisadza & Mduduzi Biyase, 2023. "Financial Development and Income Inequality: Evidence From Advanced, Emerging and Developing Economies," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-27, March.
    6. José Carlos Coelho & José Alves, 2021. "How inequality drives growth: an investigation of the transmission channels for OECD countries," Working Papers REM 2021/0194, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Mallela, Keerti & Singh, Sunny Kumar & Srivastava, Archana, 2023. "Remittances, financial development, and income inequality: A panel quantile regression approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 171-186.
    8. Oberndorfer, Moritz & Leyland, Alastair H. & Pearce, Jamie & Grabovac, Igor & Hannah, Mary K. & Dorner, Thomas E., 2023. "Unequally Unequal? Contextual-level status inequality and social cohesion moderating the association between individual-level socioeconomic position and systemic chronic inflammation," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    9. Chakrabarty, Debajyoti & Bhatia, Bhanu & Jayasinghe, Maneka & Low, David, 2023. "Relative deprivation, inequality and the Covid-19 pandemic," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    10. Shiell, Alan & Hawe, Penelope & Kavanagh, Shane, 2020. "Evidence suggests a need to rethink social capital and social capital interventions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    11. David A. Sánchez-Páez, 2022. "Effects of income inequality on COVID-19 infections and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic: Evidence from European countries," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 85-106.
    12. Ali, Mumtaz & Prasad, Ramendra & Xiang, Yong & Deo, Ravinesh C., 2020. "Near real-time significant wave height forecasting with hybridized multiple linear regression algorithms," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Meghamrita Chakraborty, 2023. "Linking Migration, Diversity and Regional Development in India," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 8(1), pages 55-72, January.
    14. Müller, Karsten, 2020. "German forecasters' narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Working Papers 23, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    15. Paolo Di Caro & Roberta Arbolino & Ugo Marani, 2018. "A note on the effects of human capital policies in Italy during the Great Recession," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1302-1312.
    16. Mattos, Enlinson & Rocha, Fabiana & Toporcov, Patricia, 2013. "Programas de incentivos fiscais são eficazes? Evidência a partir da avaliação do impacto do programa nota fiscal paulista sobre a arrecadação de ICMS," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(1), April.
    17. Bruno Amable & Donatella Gatti & Jan Schumacher, 2006. "Welfare-State Retrenchment: The Partisan Effect Revisited," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 22(3), pages 426-444, Autumn.
    18. Owolabi, Adegboyega O. & Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2022. "Is the shadow economy procyclical or countercyclical over the business cycle? International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 257-270.
    19. Krause, Werner & Giebler, Heiko, 2020. "Shifting Welfare Policy Positions: The Impact of Radical Right Populist Party Success Beyond Migration Politics," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 331-348.
    20. Block, Joern H. & Hirschmann, Mirko & Kranz, Tobias & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023. "Public family firms and economic inequality across societies," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:263:y:2020:i:c:s0277953620305840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/315/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.