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Index Future Trading, Spot Volatility And Market Efficiency

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  • Zonghao Chen

    (School of Economics & Finance, Victoria University of Wellington.)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the listing of index futures trading on spot market volatility, market efficiency and volatility asymmetric responses. In order to model the effects of the introduction of index futures contracts, a modified GJR-GARCH model has been applied to examine the structural change of conditional variances before and after the introduction of index futures trading in S&P500, Nikkei 225, ASX all Ordinaries, and an equally weighted international portfolio. Additionally, this study adopts the coefficient dynamic tests to examine whether the identified impacts of index futures are consistent over time in both the individual indices and the international portfolio. In the post-futures period, we found that an increase in conditional volatility and market efficiency in Japan, and an increase in the equally weighted international portfolio. In the U.S. and Australia, however, no significant structural change on conditional variance is observed. The identified increase in volatility and market efficiency in the international portfolio are consistent over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Zonghao Chen, 2014. "Index Future Trading, Spot Volatility And Market Efficiency," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(2), pages 73-101, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gei:journl:v:1:y:2014:i:2:p:73-101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    2. B. Wade Brorsen, 1991. "Futures trading, transaction costs, and stock market volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 153-163, April.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    4. Cox, Charles C, 1976. "Futures Trading and Market Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1215-1237, December.
    5. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Long H. Vo, 2017. "Estimating Financial Volatility with High-Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(2), pages 84-114, October.

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