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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Olea ferruginea in Pakistan incorporating Climate Change by Using Maxent Model

Author

Listed:
  • Uzma Ashraf

    (College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Pakistan)

  • Hassan Ali

    (Department of Zoology, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Punjab Wildlife and Parks Department, Dera Ghazi Khan Region 32200, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Nawaz Chaudry

    (College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Pakistan)

  • Irfan Ashraf

    (College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Pakistan
    Strategic Policy Unit, Lahore Development Authority, Lahore 54770, Pakistan)

  • Adila Batool

    (Department of Space Science, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Pakistan)

  • Zafeer Saqib

    (Department of Environmental Science, International Islamic University, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan)

Abstract

The potential distribution of Olea ferruginea was predicted by Maxent model for present and the upcoming hypothetical (2050) climatic scenario. O. ferruginea is an economically beneficial plant species. For predicting the potential distribution of O. ferruginea in Pakistan, Worldclim variables for current and future climatic change scenarios, digital elevation model (DEM) slope, and aspects with the occurrence point were used. Pearson correlation was used to reject highly correlated variables. A total of 219 sighting points were used in the Maxent modeling. The area under curve (AUC) value was higher than 0.98. The approach used in this study is considered useful in predicting the potential distribution of O. ferruginea species, and can be an effective tool in the conservation and restoration planning for human welfare. The results show that there is a significant impact under future bioclimatic scenarios on the potential distribution of O. ferruginea in Pakistan. There is a significant decrease in the overall distribution of O. ferruginea due to loss of habitats under current distribution range, but this will be compensated by gain of habitat at higher altitudes in the future climate change scenario (habitat shift). It is recommended that the areas predicted suitable for the O. ferruginea may be used for plantation of this species while the deforested land should be restored for human welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Uzma Ashraf & Hassan Ali & Muhammad Nawaz Chaudry & Irfan Ashraf & Adila Batool & Zafeer Saqib, 2016. "Predicting the Potential Distribution of Olea ferruginea in Pakistan incorporating Climate Change by Using Maxent Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:8:p:722-:d:74972
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moreno-Amat, Elena & Mateo, Rubén G. & Nieto-Lugilde, Diego & Morueta-Holme, Naia & Svenning, Jens-Christian & García-Amorena, Ignacio, 2015. "Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 308-317.
    2. Sillero, Neftalí, 2011. "What does ecological modelling model? A proposed classification of ecological niche models based on their underlying methods," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1343-1346.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ping He & Yu Gao & Longfei Guo & Tongtong Huo & Yuxin Li & Xingren Zhang & Yunfeng Li & Cheng Peng & Fanyun Meng, 2021. "Evaluating the Disaster Risk of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using an Ecological Niche Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-23, October.
    3. H. Oğuz Çoban & Ömer K. Örücü & E. Seda Arslan, 2020. "MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.
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