IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i9p3983-d1644961.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

E-Private Mobility Index: A Novel Tool for Assessing BEV Transition Feasibility

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Strada

    (Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Via Giuseppe Ponzio, 34, 20133 Milano, Italy)

  • Raffaele Giuseppe Cestari

    (Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Via Giuseppe Ponzio, 34, 20133 Milano, Italy)

  • Antonio Pagliaroli

    (Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Via Giuseppe Ponzio, 34, 20133 Milano, Italy)

  • Sergio Matteo Savaresi

    (Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Via Giuseppe Ponzio, 34, 20133 Milano, Italy)

Abstract

While the speed of the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) depends on real-world driving behaviors and socioeconomic conditions, relevant predictions are often not based on real trip data. This study analyzes over 200,000 private car trips, tracked via onboard telematics across Italy, in order to assess the feasibility of replacing internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) with BEVs. Given that drivers are resistant to changing their habits, we introduce the E-Private Mobility Index, which quantifies the percentage of traditional cars at present that are functionally compatible with a medium BEV, assuming home charging. Nationwide, this index reaches 30%, but only 15% of car owners would also see financial benefits. By quantifying both the potential to replace traditional cars with electric ones and the associated economic impacts, our analysis supports sustainable mobility by offering insights into the rate of penetration of sustainable and green mobility, in line with the objectives of the European Green Deal. With its unprecedented statistical significance, the study not only provides a data-driven upper threshold of BEV penetration but also offers a flexible framework for shaping future policies, allowing the adaptation of parameters and assumptions to guide a scalable transition to electric private mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Strada & Raffaele Giuseppe Cestari & Antonio Pagliaroli & Sergio Matteo Savaresi, 2025. "E-Private Mobility Index: A Novel Tool for Assessing BEV Transition Feasibility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:3983-:d:1644961
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/9/3983/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/9/3983/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riesz, Jenny & Sotiriadis, Claire & Ambach, Daisy & Donovan, Stuart, 2016. "Quantifying the costs of a rapid transition to electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 287-300.
    2. Plötz, Patrick & Schneider, Uta & Globisch, Joachim & Dütschke, Elisabeth, 2014. "Who will buy electric vehicles? Identifying early adopters in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 96-109.
    3. Hsieh, I-Yun Lisa & Pan, Menghsuan Sam & Green, William H., 2020. "Transition to electric vehicles in China: Implications for private motorization rate and battery market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Stephen P. Holland & Erin T. Mansur & Andrew J. Yates, 2021. "The Electric Vehicle Transition and the Economics of Banning Gasoline Vehicles," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 316-344, August.
    5. Vasja Roblek & Maja Meško & Iztok Podbregar, 2021. "Impact of Car Sharing on Urban Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, January.
    6. Werner Roeger & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2022. "Gas price caps and electricity production effects in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War: modeling and new policy reforms," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 645-673, October.
    7. Stokes, Leah C. & Breetz, Hanna L., 2018. "Politics in the U.S. energy transition: Case studies of solar, wind, biofuels and electric vehicles policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 76-86.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zimm, Caroline, 2021. "Improving the understanding of electric vehicle technology and policy diffusion across countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 54-66.
    2. Ma, Shao-Chao & Fan, Ying & Feng, Lianyong, 2017. "An evaluation of government incentives for new energy vehicles in China focusing on vehicle purchasing restrictions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 609-618.
    3. Almeida Neves, Sónia & Cardoso Marques, António & Alberto Fuinhas, José, 2019. "Technological progress and other factors behind the adoption of electric vehicles: Empirical evidence for EU countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 28-39.
    4. Xiong, Siqin & Yuan, Yi & Yao, Jia & Bai, Bo & Ma, Xiaoming, 2023. "Exploring consumer preferences for electric vehicles based on the random coefficient logit model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    5. Baresch, Martin & Moser, Simon, 2019. "Allocation of e-car charging: Assessing the utilization of charging infrastructures by location," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 388-395.
    6. Qian, Lixian & Grisolía, Jose M. & Soopramanien, Didier, 2019. "The impact of service and government-policy attributes on consumer preferences for electric vehicles in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 70-84.
    7. Wakiyama, Takako & Zusman, Eric, 2021. "The impact of electricity market reform and subnational climate policy on carbon dioxide emissions across the United States: A path analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Ramos-Real, Francisco J. & Ramírez-Díaz, Alfredo & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Perez, Yannick, 2018. "Willingness to pay for electric vehicles in island regions: The case of Tenerife (Canary Islands)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 140-149.
    9. Jin, Tao & Jiang, Yulian & Liu, Xingwen, 2023. "Evolutionary game analysis of the impact of dynamic dual credit policy on new energy vehicles after subsidy cancellation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    10. Anne Christine Lusk & Xin Li & Qiming Liu, 2023. "If the Government Pays for Full Home-Charger Installation, Would Affordable-Housing and Middle-Income Residents Buy Electric Vehicles?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-26, March.
    11. Cagli, Efe Caglar, 2023. "The volatility spillover between battery metals and future mobility stocks: Evidence from the time-varying frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    12. Elena Higueras-Castillo & Sebastian Molinillo & J. Andres Coca-Stefaniak & Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas, 2020. "Potential Early Adopters of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in Spain—Towards a Customer Profile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    13. Gruber Johannes & Rudolph Christian & Kolarova Viktoriya, 2015. "Einflussfaktoren bei der Einführung des Lastenrads im urbanen Wirtschaftsverkehr," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 59(1), pages 115-129, October.
    14. Schumacher, Kim & Yang, Zhuoxiang, 2018. "The determinants of wind energy growth in the United States: Drivers and barriers to state-level development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-13.
    15. Carol Hager & Nicole Hamagami, 2020. "Local Renewable Energy Initiatives in Germany and Japan in a Changing National Policy Environment," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 37(3), pages 386-411, May.
    16. Felix Hinnüber & Marek Szarucki & Katarzyna Szopik-Depczyńska, 2019. "The Effects of a First-Time Experience on the Evaluation of Battery Electric Vehicles by Potential Consumers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-25, December.
    17. Kenneth T. Gillingham & Marten Ovaere & Stephanie M. Weber, 2025. "Carbon Policy and the Emissions Implications of Electric Vehicles," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(2), pages 313-352.
    18. Liu, Yajie & Dong, Feng & Wang, Yulong & Li, Jingyun & Qin, Chang, 2023. "Assessment of the energy-saving and environment effects of China's gasoline vehicle withdrawal under the impact of geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    19. Rik L. Rozendaal & Herman R. J. Vollebergh & Rik Rozendaal, 2021. "Policy-Induced Innovation in Clean Technologies: Evidence from the Car Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 9422, CESifo.
    20. Herberz, Mario & Hahnel, Ulf J.J. & Brosch, Tobias, 2020. "The importance of consumer motives for green mobility: A multi-modal perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 102-118.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:3983-:d:1644961. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.