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Pathway Simulation and Evaluation of Carbon Neutrality in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region Based on the LEAP Model

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaona Xie

    (School of Automation, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China)

  • Youwei Li

    (School of Automation, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China)

  • Han Zhang

    (Power System Security and Operation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Research Institute, Chengdu 610041, China
    Artificial Intelligence Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Yibin 644000, China)

  • Zhengwei Chang

    (Power System Security and Operation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Research Institute, Chengdu 610041, China
    Artificial Intelligence Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Yibin 644000, China)

  • Yu Zhan

    (College of Carbon Neutrality Future Technology, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

Abstract

Facing the intensifying global climate change pressures and China’s strategic commitment to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, this study focuses on the multiple challenges faced by the Sichuan-Chongqing region, the economic core of southwest China, in optimizing its energy structure, controlling carbon emissions, and exploring sustainable development pathways. The study uses the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) model to simulate energy demand and carbon emission trends under different policies and innovative technologies by constructing various scenarios. By conducting a comparative analysis of the LEAP model’s projection results under four scenarios (baseline scenario, alleviative scenario, low-carbon scenario, and high-efficiency low-carbon scenario), this study quantifies the energy demand and carbon emission pathways in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. The results show that optimizing the energy structure and improving energy efficiency are key to achieving carbon neutrality in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. Under the high-efficiency low-carbon scenario, the region is expected to reach peak energy consumption by 2050 and achieve a significant reduction in carbon emissions by 2060, with emissions dropping to 58.1% of the total emissions in 2050 and falling below 25% of the base year’s emissions. The industry sector is expected to account for 77.6% of total emissions. This study highlights the positive impact of widespread clean energy adoption on carbon reduction and demonstrates the importance of industrial restructuring and low-carbon technological innovation, among other green technologies, in promoting economic and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, by quantitatively analyzing carbon emission pathways under different scenarios, the study provides quantitative support and policy references for Sichuan-Chongqing and other regions to implement more scientific emission reduction measures and carbon neutrality pathway planning. The findings contribute to advancing regional collaborative governance, enhancing the scientific rigor of policy implementation, and fostering global climate governance cooperation, ultimately contributing to the coordinated and sustainable development of the ecological environment, economy, and society, embodying the “Sichuan-Chongqing efforts”.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaona Xie & Youwei Li & Han Zhang & Zhengwei Chang & Yu Zhan, 2025. "Pathway Simulation and Evaluation of Carbon Neutrality in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region Based on the LEAP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:7:p:3233-:d:1628393
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luyi Qiu & Kunying Niu & Wei He & Yaqi Hu, 2023. "Two Contribution Paths of Carbon Neutrality: Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Sinks and Anthropogenic Carbon Emission Reduction—A Case of Chongqing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Elzen, Michel den & Fekete, Hanna & Höhne, Niklas & Admiraal, Annemiek & Forsell, Nicklas & Hof, Andries F. & Olivier, Jos G.J. & Roelfsema, Mark & van Soest, Heleen, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 224-236.
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    4. Liang, Xiaoying & Fan, Min & Huang, Xiaofang & Cai, Can & Zhou, Lele & Wang, Yuanzhe, 2024. "Spatial distributed characteristics of carbon dioxide emissions based on fossil energy consumption and their driving factors at provincial scale in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    5. Aljoša Slameršak & Giorgos Kallis & Daniel W. O’Neill, 2022. "Energy requirements and carbon emissions for a low-carbon energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
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    2. Wang, Guoyu & Wu, Jiepeng & Zhou, Jinsheng, 2025. "Multi-objective optimization research on the achievement path of dual carbon goals in mining enterprises," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).

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