Spatiotemporal Patterns and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Basin: A Shrinkage Perspective

This study categorizes 45 cities into four types based on population dynamics using census data (2000–2020). Methods such as ArcGIS10.8, carbon emission estimation, LISA clustering, and association analysis are employed to explore the spatiotemporal distribution of shrinking cities and carbon emissions. This study analyzes carbon emission patterns and influencing factors for the four city types and provides policy recommendations. The findings are as follows: (1) Lasting-growth cities show a “two-end mass, middle-point” pattern, while stage-growth and stage-shrinking cities are “point” distributed. Lasting-shrinking cities are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. (2) Total carbon emissions are rising, showing two clusters of high-value areas. Carbon emission intensity is falling quickly, being higher in the west and lower in the east. (3) Lasting-growth cities have the fastest direct carbon emission growth rate, stage-growth cities have the fastest energy-related indirect emission growth rate, and cities undergoing population increase have the fastest growth rate for other indirect carbon emissions. In terms of carbon reduction, lasting-growth cities perform best, whereas stage-growth cities perform worst. (4) Regional GDP, per capita regional GDP, urban construction area, and hospital beds per 10,000 people promote carbon emission reduction in the four city types, while a higher number of industrial enterprises inhibits it. Birth rate, aging rate, and mortality rate have no significant impact. This study addresses the gaps in previous research on shrinking cities and carbon emission reduction by considering the dynamic nature of shrinking processes and analyzing carbon emission patterns.