Sustainable Housing Market Responses to Landslide Hazards: A Three-Stage Hierarchical Linear Analysis of Urban Scale and Temporal Dynamics

This study hypothesizes that the impacts of landslides on housing prices are not uniform but instead vary depending on their spatial proximity to hazard zones, as well as on neighborhood, urban, and temporal characteristics of each city. To test this hypothesis, we analyze APT price responses to landslides across three South Korean cities with distinct urban characteristics: Seoul (capital city), Busan (metropolitan city), and Gunsan (medium-sized local city). Using 120 three-stage hierarchical linear regression (HLR) models, the analysis incorporates housing characteristics, neighborhood attributes, and urban–temporal factors to capture multilevel variations in price dynamics. The results reveal distinct spatial and temporal patterns. At the national level, immediate post-event changes are not uniformly negative: within 250 m of landslide zones, prices increase by 0.8%, while 500-m and 750-m groups rise by 0.5% and 1.9%, respectively, and only the 1000-m group declines by 0.9%. However, in the following year, the 250-m and 500-m groups experience notable declines before showing partial recovery in the second year. City-specific trajectories further underscore regional heterogeneity. In Seoul, medium- and long-term declines dominate, with post-event decreases of 1.9%, 4.2%, and 3.5% in the 500-m, 750-m, and 1000-m groups, respectively. Busan exhibits the sharpest and most persistent declines, with immediate decreases of 3.2% to 4.1% across distance bands, followed by sustained downturns in subsequent years. In contrast, Gunsan shows mixed but relatively faster recovery, as the 750-m group increases by 3.6% post-event and eventually surpasses pre-landslide levels.