Impact of Green Financial Reform on Urban Economic Resilience—A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Green Financial Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones

As a key engine driving China’s green financial transformation, the Green Financial Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones have demonstrated significant achievements in enhancing the capacity of financial services to support green real economies, preventing and mitigating green financial risks, and bolstering national and urban economic resilience. On this basis, a spatial Markov chain model is applied to further analyze the economic toughness of prefecture-level cities. This study treats the establishment of these pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment, using panel data from 269 prefecture-level cities in China from 2013 to 2023 and employing a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to empirically examine the impact of green financial reform on urban economic resilience and its underlying mechanisms. The results reveal that the establishment of these pilot zones significantly enhances urban economic resilience. Specifically, green financial reforms primarily improve urban economic resilience by increasing credit accessibility and capital allocation efficiency in the pilot cities. Furthermore, the policy effects are more pronounced in large cities and resource-dependent cities compared to small and medium-sized cities and non-resource-dependent cities, with stronger impacts observed in southern and coastal regions than in northern inland areas. Additionally, the policy effects are significantly greater in environmentally prioritized cities than in non-prioritized cities. By integrating green financial reforms and urban economic resilience into a unified analytical framework, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers to refine green financial strategies and design resilience-enhancing policies.