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Foresight for Sustainable Last-Mile Delivery: A Delphi-Based Scenario Study for Smart Cities in 2030

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  • Ibrahim Mutambik

    (Department of Information Science, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh P.O. Box 11451, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the future trajectories of last-mile delivery (LMD), and their implications for sustainable urban logistics and smart city planning. Through a Delphi-based scenario analysis targeting the year 2030, this research draws on inputs from a two-round Delphi study with 52 experts representing logistics, academia, and government. Four key thematic areas were explored: consumer demand and behavior, emerging delivery technologies, innovative delivery services, and regulatory frameworks. The projections were structured using fuzzy c-means clustering, and analyzed through the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT), supporting a systemic understanding of innovation adoption in urban logistics systems. The findings offer strategic insights for municipal planners, policymakers, logistics service providers, and e-commerce stakeholders, helping align infrastructure development and regulatory planning with the evolving needs of last-mile logistics. This approach contributes to advancing resilient, low-emission, and inclusive smart city ecosystems that align with global sustainability goals, particularly those outlined in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim Mutambik, 2025. "Foresight for Sustainable Last-Mile Delivery: A Delphi-Based Scenario Study for Smart Cities in 2030," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:15:p:6660-:d:1706748
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