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Hazard Assessment of Highway Debris Flows in High-Altitude Mountainous Areas: A Case Study of the Laqi Gully on the China–Pakistan Highway

Author

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  • Xiaomin Dai

    (School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Green Construction and Maintenance of Transportation Infrastructure and Intelligent Traffic Control, Urumqi 830017, China)

  • Qihang Liu

    (School of Mechanical Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China)

  • Ziang Liu

    (School of Mechanical Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China)

  • Xincheng Wu

    (Xinjiang Transportation Construction Group Co., Ltd., Urumqi 830011, China)

Abstract

Located on the northern side of the China–Pakistan Highway in the Pamir Plateau, Laqi Gully represents a typical rainfall–meltwater coupled debris flow gully. During 2020–2024, seven debris flow events occurred in this area, four of which disrupted traffic and posed significant threats to the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The hazard assessment of debris flows constitutes a crucial component in disaster prevention and mitigation. However, current research presents two critical limitations: traditional models primarily focus on single precipitation-driven debris flows, while low-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) inadequately characterize the topographic features of alpine narrow valleys. Addressing these issues, this study employed GF-7 satellite stereo image pairs to construct a 1 m resolution DEM and systematically simulated debris flow propagation processes under 10–100-year recurrence intervals using a coupled rainfall–meltwater model. The results show the following: (1) The mudslide develops rapidly in the gully section, and the flow velocity decays when it reaches the highway. (2) At highway cross-sections, maximum velocities corresponding to 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals measure 2.57 m/s, 2.75 m/s, 3.02 m/s, and 3.36 m/s, respectively, with maximum flow depths of 1.56 m, 1.78 m, 2.06 m, and 2.52 m. (3) Based on the hazard classification model of mudslide intensity and return period, the high-, medium-, and low-hazard sections along the highway were 58.65 m, 27.36 m, and 24.1 m, respectively. This research establishes a novel hazard assessment methodology for rainfall–meltwater coupled debris flows in narrow valleys, providing technical support for debris flow mitigation along the CPEC. The outcomes demonstrate significant practical value for advancing infrastructure sustainability under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaomin Dai & Qihang Liu & Ziang Liu & Xincheng Wu, 2025. "Hazard Assessment of Highway Debris Flows in High-Altitude Mountainous Areas: A Case Study of the Laqi Gully on the China–Pakistan Highway," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:14:p:6411-:d:1700674
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cencen Niu & Qing Wang & Jianping Chen & Wen Zhang & Liming Xu & Ke Wang, 2015. "Hazard Assessment of Debris Flows in the Reservoir Region of Wudongde Hydropower Station in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-20, November.
    2. Wang, Chao & Lim, Ming K. & Zhang, Xinyi & Zhao, Longfeng & Lee, Paul Tae-Woo, 2020. "Railway and road infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative countries: Estimating the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 288-307.
    3. Hao Zheng & Lanlan Guo & Jifu Liu & Bin Chen & Lianyou Liu, 2025. "The Application of Numerical Simulation in Debris Flow Disaster Early Warning: A Case Study of Shiyang Gully, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Sajid Ali & Rashid Haider & Wahid Abbas & Muhammad Basharat & Klaus Reicherter, 2021. "Empirical assessment of rockfall and debris flow risk along the Karakoram Highway, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2437-2460, April.
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    1. Xiaomin Dai & Xinjun Song & Zehao Zhang & Dongchen Han & Fukai Sun & Mayibaier Maihamuti & Yunxia Ma, 2025. "Dynamic Process Modeling and Innovative Tertiary Warning Strategy for Weir-Outburst Debris Flows in Huocheng County, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-23, August.

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