Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Agricultural Sustainable Development

Using panel data from 31 provinces and municipalities in China spanning the period from 2002 to 2021, this study constructs a comprehensive indicator system to assess the level of agricultural sustainable development from the dimensions of economic, social, and ecological. A panel threshold regression model is developed, with rural labor transfer serving as the threshold variable, to explore the nonlinear effects of rural population aging on agricultural sustainable development. The empirical findings indicate that the overall level of agricultural sustainable development in China has shown a consistent upward trend over the study period, with the highest level observed in the main grain-consuming areas, followed by the main grain-producing areas, and the lowest in the grain-producing and consuming balance areas. Moreover, rural population aging exhibits a significant nonlinear and positive effect on agricultural sustainable development. Based on two identified threshold values of labor transfer, the results suggest that as the proportion of labor transfer increases, the positive impact also increases. Against the backdrop of intensified rural labor migration and the consequent acceleration of rural population aging, it is imperative to promote the scaling-up of agricultural operations, foster a new generation of professional farmers, and implement region-specific sustainable agricultural development strategies to support long-term sustainability in the agricultural sector.