Spatiotemporal Dynamic Evolution of Energy Rebound Effect and Sustainable Path for Energy Conservation–Emission Reduction in Resource-Based Cities of China

Improving energy efficiency is critical for promoting energy-saving transitions in resource-based cities. However, the expected benefits of such improvements are often offset by the energy rebound effect. Based on 115 prefecture-level cities in accordance with the “National Sustainable Development Plan for Resource-based Cities” as study units, this study employs the efficiency decomposition method to evaluate the energy rebound effect and applies spatial kernel density estimation and standard deviation ellipse analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of the rebound effect across Chinese resource-based cities. Furthermore, a matrix-based classification framework is applied to identify stages of energy-saving potential and to propose differentiated transition pathways. The results reveal the following: (1) The rebound effect demonstrates fluctuating temporal patterns and a spatial shift from clustering to more dispersed distributions. (2) Temporal dynamics play a suppressive role on the rebound effect while also shaping spatial spillover interactions among cities. (3) Strategic pathway planning is essential for cities with high potential for energy conservation and emission reduction to curb the regional diffusion of the rebound effect. This study offers an assessment of the rebound effect in China’s resource-based cities, providing actionable insights for rebound risks and supporting low-carbon urban transformation.